Salah, De Bruyne, Zubimendi: Betting on the Major Potential Transfers of 2024-25
Who will Real Madrid “hoover up” this time?
The winter transfer window is fast approaching. Manchester City will likely be on the hunt for a replacement for the injured Rodri. Without him, their winless streak is becoming downright embarrassing. Meanwhile, a whole host of potential stars have flopped at Manchester United and are looking to leave.
Bookmakers have released lists of players who might leave their clubs, either in January or at the end of the season. We’ve got the details and the best options for your bets.
Trent Alexander-Arnold to Sign for Before 3rd February
The Breakup of Liverpool’s Golden Squad
The Merseysiders are tearing through the season, leading comfortably in both the Champions League and the Premier League. At this pace, they might not only clinch the treble but even achieve the elusive quadruple.
In cases of such dominance, clubs usually strive to retain the same squad for as long as possible. Prime examples include Guardiola's Barcelona or Zidane's Real Madrid, who let go of at most one key player per year.
Mohamed Salah: Club on 09.08.2025
The issue lies in the fact that Trent Alexander-Arnold, Mohamed Salah, and Virgil van Dijk all have contracts expiring this summer. It's almost unthinkable they’d leave in January—Liverpool have only sold one top player mid-season in the last decade. That was Philippe Coutinho, shipped off to Barcelona for a staggering €135 million during the 2017-18 campaign.
But come summer, the chances will rise, especially if, despite their phenomenal start, the Reds end up trophyless. Salah, in particular, has a potential path to Saudi Arabia, a region culturally and religiously familiar to him, blazed by his former teammate Sadio Mané. At 32, the Egyptian has yet to receive a new contract offer—a snub he’s reportedly quite unhappy about.
The situation with Van Dijk is different. The central defender could continue playing at a high level for another 2, 3, or even 4 years. He doesn’t earn as much as Salah, the club’s record-holder with £350,000 a week. Van Dijk was offered a new contract, but according to insiders from The Athletic, he’s dissatisfied with the terms.
The only alternative to Liverpool for Van Dijk (though with an extremely low probability), according to bookmakers, is Barcelona. However, this option seems unlikely. In the last three seasons, Barcelona, struggling financially, have only bought one player per season for more than €30 million (the exact transfer value of Van Dijk). Plus, the Blaugranas have already splashed out on Dani Olmo.
On the other hand, Real Madrid have set their sights on Alexander-Arnold, which is worrying for Liverpool fans. When the Madrid side targets a top player, their failed negotiations are few and far between.
Stars that Real Madrid missed out on in the last 10 years
Player |
Year |
Obstacles of Failure |
Erling Haaland |
2022 |
Haaland prioritized guaranteed playing time at City and their project aligned better with his goals. |
Neymar |
2013, 2019 |
In 2013, Neymar preferred Barcelona. In 2019, Real Madrid faced PSG's high valuation and challenging negotiations. |
Paul Pogba |
2016, 2019 |
In 2016, Pogba opted for Manchester United, and in 2019, Real Madrid couldn’t agree on a transfer fee with United. |
Robert Lewandowski |
2013, 2018 |
In 2013, Lewandowski joined Bayern. In 2018, Bayern refused to sell. |
David De Gea |
2015 |
Paperwork was submitted too late, and the deal collapsed on transfer deadline day. |
Even Kylian Mbappé and PSG eventually gave in to Real Madrid. Right now, Madrid desperately need a right-back. Dani Carvajal, aged 32, has a contract expiring in the summer, but more crucially, he’s recovering from a cruciate ligament injury that could sideline him for almost a year. After the recent defeat to Liverpool at the Santiago Bernabéu, there’s a strong demand for changes.
Disillusioned with the Red Devils
Manchester United have a new manager, which means new signings are expected. Each of the three previous coaches received at least two top-tier transfers in their first season. For the current manager, Amorim, the priority is Dýkeres. More details on this can be found here:
Manchester United need to free up wage space and offload a player with enormous potential who hasn’t lived up to expectations, brought in by former coach Ten Hag. The player in question is Antony.
Antony has gone through stretches of 30+ matches without scoring, making it clear that he’s not needed at Manchester United. Over the past decade, the "back-and-forth" route—returning to the club that sold you—has been taken by several players in Europe:
Luka Jovic: Eintracht → Real Madrid → Eintracht
Antoine Griezmann: Atlético → Barcelona → Atlético
Memphis Depay: PSV → Manchester United → PSV
It’s not out of the question that Casemiro could follow a similar path. He’s far from his former peak and has occasionally been woeful in matches, such as the loss to Liverpool, where his lapse led to a goal. With the arrival of Manuel Ugarte, even his starting spot is under threat.
Before the start of this season, Galatasaray was ready to sign the Brazilian, but at the last moment, the deal fell through.
Manchester City: Attempt to Save the Season
Without Rodri, City are a shadow of themselves. They concede 1.5 times more goals without him than with him. A replacement is needed, and among the few defensive midfielders of similar caliber (or at least potential), the only one available on the market is Martin Zubimendi from Real Sociedad.
Yes, Rodri is a Ballon d'Or winner, and City didn’t lose a single match last season with him on the field. However, Zubimendi is also a European champion and one of the most promising talents in La Liga. His style would likely adapt well to Guardiola’s system. Imanol Alguacil is considered a "budget Guardiola," focusing on pressing and possession. It’s no surprise that Real Sociedad is among the top five La Liga teams in terms of possession.
Rodri vs. Zubimendi - 2023-24 Season Statistics
Rodri |
Stats |
Zubimendi |
1.52 |
KP90 (Passes lead to shot per 90 minutes) |
0.54 |
91.2 % |
Pass Accuracy |
81 % |
54 |
Interceptions |
22 |
Zubimendi is three years younger than Rodri, and for a couple of years now, he has been dubbed the “second Busquets”—a name that played a significant role in Pep Guardiola’s career.
What’s crucial now is whether City can prepare for the acquisition in such a short time. Typically, it takes them years to make fundamental squad improvements, whether it’s securing a center-back like Ruben Dias or a central striker like Haaland.
If De Bruyne were to leave in January, Guardiola would likely have scratched his face and bald head even more vigorously than he did during the Feyenoord match. However, that seems unlikely as the Belgian’s contract runs until the summer. But if that were the case, it would likely mean his farewell to the Etihad Stadium is set. First, Sky Sports reported the inside scoop, and then De Bruyne himself confirmed that he wants to move to MLS, naming a specific team: San Diego FC.
Other Potential Transfers
Despite a much-improved season compared to last year, some players are planning to leave Chelsea. It’s clear that Christopher Nkunku is unhappy with his bench role. PSG are keen to bring their former player back and have proposed various options: ranging from €60 million to a potential exchange involving Kolo-Muani. These are the insider reports from The Sun tabloid.
Enzo Maresca does not need Ben Chilwell, as he made it clear back in the summer. Bookmakers consider Juventus the favorite in the race for the defender, especially given that they lead Italy’s top clubs in muscle injuries. Recently, they lost two key defenders—Juan Cabal and Gleison Bremer. To quickly address the issue, Juventus even considered buying Lindelöf from Manchester United, but Chilwell remains one of their top priorities.
Finally, outside of Europe, the most attention is being paid to the potential transfer of Neymar. It seems that Al-Hilal regrets their purchase of the temperamental Brazilian, who also suffered a year-long injury. His contract expires in the summer. While there’s still hope for an offer from MLS, it’s more likely that Neymar, like the majority of Brazilian players, will return home to finish his career. In the 21st century, players like Ronaldo, Rivaldo, Ronaldinho, Kaká, Dani Alves, and Robinho have all followed this path.
Epilogue
Bookmakers generally have a good understanding of potential moves. While they may not always predict the exact club, they correctly identify the geographical direction in 7 out of 10 cases. When a betting company predicts that De Bruyne will move to the USA and Salah to Saudi Arabia, it's wise to listen.
The second important point is teams that are urgently in need of fresh talent. These clubs won’t wait and will offer better terms than their competitors, who aren’t under as much pressure. For example, it’s worth keeping an eye on Trent's potential move to Real Madrid, who need a replacement for Carvajal. Similarly, Zubimendi’s potential move to City is worth monitoring, as they need a replacement for Rodri.
These two transfers are backed by "national-historical" memory. City under Guardiola is one of the most successful Premier League teams for Spanish players. Just think of David Silva, Ferran Torres, and Rodri himself. And Spain, in the 21st century, has been the main European destination for English superstars, with Real Madrid at the forefront—starting with Beckham, Owen, and McManaman, all the way to Bellingham.
Real Madrid
Pachuca
Arsenal
Crystal Palace
Southampton
Liverpool
Newcastle
Brentford
Atalanta
Cezena
