Salah's Record: Odds on the PFA Player of the Year
Waiting for the first three-time winner in history.
Midseason is, of course, not the time to draw definitive conclusions. However, some things are already becoming clear. For example, even if City pulls out of its slump, they won’t become champions. After all, the Boxing Day leader has gone on to win the title in 70% of cases over the last 10 years.
Individual awards are a bit trickier: everyone peaks at different times. And who knows when injury might strike? Perhaps at the height of glory—right, Rodri? Nevertheless, Mohamed Salah has hit phenomenal form and could become the first player ever to win the PFA Player of the Year award three times. In our review, we’ll explore how the Egyptian found his second wind under Arne Slot, assess the chances of his competitors, and, of course, suggest the best betting options.
PFA Player of the Year Odds
The PFA Award is presented by the players' union, and some, like the legendary Teddy Sheringham, consider it more valuable than the Champions League trophy. Even John Terry claimed that being recognized by “those who face you every week” is truly priceless.
Top 5 PFA Player of the Year Award Contenders
The Greatness of Mo
Salah shares the top spot for goals in the Premier League and holds second place in assists—by a significant margin over third. Who’s surprised? Mo has been tearing up the league for the past 10 seasons. Only Harry Kane has scored more during this time. Plus, the Egyptian has collected a hefty pile of trophies (sorry, Harry).
Even if you decided to bet £5 on Salah to score in every game, you'd still be in profit by around £10 on flat bets by Christmas.
Over the past two years, Salah appeared to fade, following in the footsteps of his legendary mentor, Jürgen Klopp. He wasn’t even in the race for the Golden Boot, failing to surpass the 20-goal mark. Astonishingly, though, Salah’s stats for half of this season are nearly on par with his figures for the entire previous campaign.
Salah's Comparative Statistics
2023-24 season |
Stats |
2024-25 season |
32 |
Matches |
15 |
18 |
Goals |
13 |
9 |
Assists |
10 |
0.77 |
xG 90 |
0.72 |
2.32 |
KP 90 |
1.83 |
To be fair, Salah’s resurgence began under Klopp. But it was under Arne Slot that his transformation truly took shape. So what exactly did the Dutchman do to make Salah great again, as Donald Trump would say?
To start with, Mo scores 0,60 goals per game. It is the second result in his career after the 2017/18 season when he was somewhat of a spaceman with 0,96. Egyptian increased his level of effectiveness: while in the last season, he scored 0,46 goals per game with an xG of 0,55, now it is 0,60 with a current xG is 0,51. Slot’s tactics let Salah receive a lot of long passes and stretch the opponent’s defence. He uses it most effectively and often suggests himself on the far post. It wasn’t a tendency in Klopp’s era. Moreover, Mo’s dribbling has progressed: while in the last season he had 0,96 successful dribbles per game, now it increased to 1,71.
We won’t turn into geeks obsessed with numbers. After all, in Salah’s case, there is a psychological factor at play. Periods of decline and revival are suspiciously linked to rumors about his departure from Liverpool. Until the middle of last season, he was rumored to be heading to Saudi Arabia. But once it became clear that he would finish the season at Liverpool, goals and assists came pouring in like from a cornucopia.
Currently, Salah’s future is still uncertain. He hasn’t been offered a new contract, which upsets and frustrates him. Recently, The Guardian published a pessimistic statement from the Egyptian.
However, insiders believe that Mo will spend another year with the Reds. It’s no coincidence that the odds on his move are quite high.
Mohamed Salah Club on 09.08.2025
Main Competitors
Historically, most Players of the Year have come from Manchester United. But with this award (just like their championship dreams), the Red Devils bid farewell when Sir Alex Ferguson left.
In the past 7 years, the award has been dominated by Manchester City and Liverpool. Of course, the English would love to see a fellow countryman win for the second year in a row (after Foden)—perhaps Palmer or Saka. The country has been waiting for something like this for 19 years, since Gerard and Terry. Both are shining and carrying their teams, but they lack the versatility of Salah.
For the last decade, the award has gone to a player from one of the top 2 teams. So in that respect, the chances for the 4 favorites are equal. You can rule out Haaland, unless a miracle happens and the City finds its form. As for position, Van Dijk is unlikely to win. He is the only defender in nearly two decades to break the midfielder and forward trend, doing so in the 2018-19 season. But, to be honest, his importance to Liverpool has decreased since then.
Who Will Win PFA Player of the Year?
Conclusion
Bookmakers have a decent track record when predicting PFA winners, getting it right about 60% of the time over the past 15 years. Of course, there are slip-ups. Who would have believed in Mahrez in 2016 or Kante in 2017?
In an ideal world, we would wait and see how players perform after the winter break. But if we have to make a decision right now, Salah, along with a Liverpool team that's hit incredible form, is clearly the number 1 contender.
