UCL Group Stage Finale: Odds & Predictions
The Champions League is heading into the final two rounds of the League stage. The main focus is on how Gyökeres has exploded in terms of goals and how Manchester City are at risk of elimination. But that's not the only story. In our review, we’ll cover the most intriguing scenarios, predictions, and of course, the best betting options.
Top 8 finish in League Stage
League Stage Betting Odds
In case anyone needs a reminder, under the new format, the top 8 teams advance directly to the Round of 16. Clubs ranked 9th to 24th will battle for 8 more spots in an additional playoff round. As for the losers and teams ranked 25th to 36th, they can now be considered the ultimate underachievers, as there’s no consolation ticket to the Europa League.
Group Stage Standings After 6 Rounds
It’s no coincidence that we started with bets on three German clubs. The only German currently making it to the Round of 16 are Bayer Leverkusen. Meanwhile, the formidable Bayern and Borussia Dortmund are almost shockingly on the brink of missing out. But we’ll get back to that. There are even bigger potential upsets brewing.
Man City and PSG on the Verge of Elimination
Two clubs with combined budgets rivaling a mid-sized European nation currently sit in 22nd and 25th places, respectively — just a step away from an epic collapse.
Judging by the tiny odds, bookmakers are confident that the Citizens won’t drop below 24th place. A small but promising winning streak in England appears to signal a recovery from their crisis.
Experts at Opta, along with their supercomputer, have calculated—based on 50,000 simulations—how many points are needed to secure a playoff spot.
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10 points: Almost a 100% guarantee
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9 points: 69% probability
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8 points: 16% probability
This means Pep needs at least 2 points from the remaining two games to avoid embarrassment. While a slip-up against PSG away is possible, failing against Brugge at home would be unthinkable. Even in this catastrophic season, Manchester City haven’t lost a Champions League home match. Plus, the aggregate score from their previous two encounters with Brugge is 9-2 in Guardiola’s favor.
The Parisians, on the other hand, are in real danger. They desperately need at least one win in their matches against direct rivals, one of whom are Manchester City.
Still, even away from home, Luis Enrique’s team is considered the favorite against Stuttgart. The German side has managed only one home victory in this Champions League campaign. Moreover, PSG haven't lost to German teams (excluding Bayern and Borussia Dortmund) in the last 15 years — a trend they’ll be eager to continue.
French “Upstarts” Set for Direct Qualifying to the Round of 16
The first question that arises when looking at the top 8 of the table is: what are Brest (Champions League debutants!) and Lille doing there? The French sides are fighting like lions, but it seems they will need to prove their right to a spot in the Round of 16 through playoff matches.
Here’s what the all-knowing Opta supercomputer says about the odds in the upper part of the table:
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16 points: 100% guarantee to finish in the top 8
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15 points: 73% probability
But with 14 points, they will almost certainly miss out. That means both Brest and Lille must secure at least 2 draws or one win from the remaining games. Brest's main hope lies in a match against struggling Shakhtar Donetsk. They’ve won two out of three away games, but even then, bookmakers view the teams as having equal chances. As for their match against Real Madrid—well, with all due respect to Brest, they suffered a heavy 0:3 loss in their only encounter with a true giant — Barcelona.
Lille haven't lost in 5 consecutive matches, with notable victories over Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid. However, bookmakers hardly believe that the French side can pose any real threat to a fired-up Liverpool, who are aiming for a perfect record, especially away from home. Everything will come down to their match against Feyenoord, where the odds are evenly split at 50/50 for both teams.
However, if anyone is capable of pulling off an upset, it’s Lille. The odds on them are certainly inflated.
German Giants Won't Qualify Directly for the Round of 16
Currently, Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich sit in 9th and 10th places, respectively. Over the last 10 years, Bayern have always made it out of the group, and only twice did they finish second. NBC experts believe that the two German giants will replace the French "underdogs" in the top 8. A key factor is the goal difference, which is three times in favor of the Germans. As for what the first eight spots will look like, here's the American take.
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Liverpool — 7-1-0 — 22 points
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Barcelona — 6-1-1 — 19 points
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Arsenal — 6-1-1 — 19 points
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Aston Villa — 6-1-1 — 19 points
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Inter Milan — 6-1-1 — 19 points
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Bayern Munich — 6-0-2 — 18 points
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Borussia Dortmund — 5-1-2 —16 points
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Atletico Madrid — 5-1-2 — 16 points
The red machine, which has emerged from its crisis and is leading the Bundesliga, has matches ahead against Feyenoord and a Slovan team that has lost all hope of advancing.
Borussia also have a favorable fixture list: Shakhtar and Bologna, who have no hopes of continuing their European campaign. Yes, the Bees are languishing in 10th place in the Bundesliga and have lost to both Real Madrid and Barcelona in the Champions League. But they’ve demolished all their lower-tier opponents with an aggregate score of 14-1.
Chelsea
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Villarreal
Mallorca
Liverpool
Lille
Benfica
Barcelona
Monaco
Aston Villa
