UCL Knockout Stage: Odds and English Teams' Chances
Have City finally escaped their struggles?
On Tuesday, February 11, the first playoff matches of the Champions League will take place. The draw has pitted the two main preseason favorites against each other. Due in large part to their own complacency, either Real Madrid or Man City will be eliminated in the Round of 16.
But what about the other favourites, particularly the English teams? We'll break down the odds, chances, and, of course, suggest the best betting options.
English Teams' Prospects in the Knockout Stage
Three English teams have already secured their spots in the Round of 16—the largest national representation in the competition. Notably, Liverpool and Arsenal are the top two favorites to win the Champions League according to the bookmakers.
2024-25 Champions League top 5 Favourites
It’s likely that these two are the reason behind the odds on an all-English final.
Liverpool are undoubtedly the strongest team of the season. They have an almost perfect record in the group stage. Mohamed Salah is in incredible form, sharing second place for assists (4).
Arsenal have already proven they can compete on two fronts, even without Bukayo Saka and a fully fit striker (sorry, Gabriel Jesus). Mikel Arteta has overcome his past insecurities and no longer panics about holding onto a lead. Against a wounded City, they finished them off like a true superclub.
Liverpool could potentially face PSG as early as the Round of 16. Arsenal, on the other hand, have a slightly easier path—they might draw Juventus, Milan, PSV, or Feyenoord.
But perhaps the luckiest team is Aston Villa. In the Round of 16, they are likely to face either Borussia Dortmund or Atalanta. While Villa's league form hasn't been stellar, we know Unai Emery as a cup specialist—having won the Europa League four times and even reached the Champions League semifinals with the modest Villarreal. In goal, they have the incomparable Emiliano Martínez, who has conceded just 6 goals despite an expected total of 10.1. Who knows, maybe the newly acquired Marcus Rashford will remember his golden days and help Villa shine in the knockout stage.
UCL 2024-25 Knockout Playoffs Odds
A few words about the new UCL format, which has already been cursed for its overload of matches by both Carlo Ancelotti and Arne Slot (of all people to complain!). After the league phase, the top 8 teams advanced directly to the Round of 16. The remaining 8 spots will be contested among teams finishing 9th to 24th. This is a classic play-in format: teams have been paired up and will face off in two-legged ties.
The only English team that failed to qualify directly for the Round of 16 is Man City. It seems the Football Gods have finally taken pity on them—only to send them straight to the Champions League experts, Real Madrid.
Man City vs Real Madrid to Meet Again
The biggest joke of the week: City and Real will be playing for Xabi Alonso. He’s the top candidate to take over at both clubs, and the loser of this tie may well end up hiring him. And at the moment, that looks likely to be City, even though the bookies have them as favourites for the first leg at home.
Guardiola’s side keeps breaking unwanted records. Having lost Ruben Dias, Rodri, and Kyle Walker, they replaced them with Gonzalez, Marmoush, and Khusanov, who promptly gifted a goal. Meanwhile, on the other side, Vinicius, Rodrygo, and Bellingham have nearly outscored the entire City squad this UCL campaign (16 vs. 18).
Real Madrid, however, have their own issues. They've already lost more UCL games this season than in the last two combined. Their defense is shaky—they rank 14th in the tournament for goals conceded (12). And now Rüdiger is injured, leaving Ancelotti with Asensio and Tchouaméni, who isn’t exactly known for defensive stability.
Still, Real are Real. The Champions League is their competition. At the start of the season, they had their lowest odds for a UCL win in five years. They do exactly what’s needed to get the job done. In the second halves of matches, they’ve scored three times more goals than in the first (15 vs 5), though they’ve conceded the same number in both halves (6 each). City, on the other hand, are collapsing at the end of games—something even Pep admitted after their humiliating 1:5 defeat to Arsenal.
By the way, this matchup might just determine the future Champions League winner. Three times before, Real Madrid have knocked City out in the knockout stage and gone on to lift the trophy. Though, in 2023, Guardiola pulled off the same trick against them. This time, however, that seems unlikely. The odds for the former tournament favorites have tripled.
The French Tie in the Playoffs
Mini-upsets are possible in some of the other play-in ties (yes, Juventus, we’re looking at you). But that doesn’t apply to the all-French matchup between PSG and Brest.
Gary Lineker and Thierry Henry spent half their show making Brest/Breast jokes—because, frankly, there’s hardly any real sporting intrigue in this one.
Super-attacking wingers Bradley Barcola and Ousmane Dembélé have now been joined by Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. Despite their dreadful finishing (scoring 5.3 goals fewer than expected), Luis Enrique’s side should still cruise into the Round of 16. Only Bayern, against Celtic, have lower odds to win their tie.
But beyond that, their path gets brutal—Liverpool or Barcelona await in the next round. Our condolences.
An Easy Walk for Bayern
Statistically, Bayern should have topped the league phase. They ranked first in xG (24.5), total shots (185), and possession (69.1%). Yet something feels off. They underperformed their expected goals by 4.5, missed out on a top-eight spot, and meekly surrendered to Feyenoord.
Still, their attack remains electric, with Olise, Musiala, and, of course, Harry Kane—one of the frontrunners for the Golden Boot, as always. Celtic, as a team, have only scored twice as many goals as Kane alone.
Top Contenders for the Golden Boot
Monaco and Benfica: Their Chances Are Equal
This is one of the most evenly matched ties. The two teams sit side by side in the standings and are rated almost identically by the bookmakers—Monaco’s win is priced at
5/4
, while Benfica’s victory is at
2/1
Their stats are nearly identical, except that the Portuguese side has scored three more goals and conceded one less.
Let’s be honest—whoever advances here is likely just moving on to lose against Liverpool or Barcelona.
Juventus to Try to Change Their Pace
Juventus have been labeled one of the biggest disappointments of the league phase. Based on expected points (8.3), they arguably shouldn’t have even made the knockouts. But let’s not forget—Thiago Motta’s complex systems usually start clicking in the second season (as seen at Bologna). He’s already stabilized the defense despite injury setbacks. They rank fifth in goals conceded (7), and Randal Kolo Muani, fresh from PSG, has scored more in two matches for Juve than he did in 14 for his former club.
On the other side, PSV are the second-highest-scoring team in Europe (103 goals). Their odds of winning seem a bit inflated.
Borussia Dortmund: A Fresh Start for This Part of the Season
We might be in for a real shootout between Viktor Gyökeres and Serhou Guirassy. Sporting have somewhat recovered from Ruben Amorim’s departure and their four-match losing streak, now suffering just one defeat in their last 10.
Still, Borussia Dortmund are clear favorites. Tough disciplinarian Niko Kovač is expected to bring order to their shaky squad, particularly in defense. Dortmund have conceded in 13 straight matches. But Kovač’s first six months at a club are usually strong—at Wolfsburg, he collected nearly three times as many points in his first 20 games (29) as in the next 20 (13).
Atalanta to Advance to the Next Stage
Atalanta are another clear favorite in their matchup. If not for Ademola Lookman’s injury, they’d likely be fighting for a top-three spot in Serie A—but even without him, they should have no trouble getting past Brugge.
Gian Piero Gasperini has proven his knockout-stage credentials, finally securing silverware last season with Atalanta’s Europa League triumph. And even in Lookman’s absence, they have Mateo Retegui and Charles De Ketelaere, who have combined for 30 goals this season.
Milan to Show Who They Really Are
Some say Milan are in crisis and turmoil, but the rebellion against Sérgio Conceição seems to have been crushed. Álvaro Morata, Davide Calabria, and Fikayo Tomori have all been shipped out.
And just to make sure Feyenoord stand no chance, Milan have snatched their best striker of the last three seasons, Santiago Giménez, for €32 million.
Manchester City
Real Madrid
Juventus
PSV
Brest
PSG
Sporting CP
Borussia Dortmund
Defensor Sporting
Monagas SC
