UCL Round of 16: Odds, Bets, and English Teams' Chances
The first legs of the Champions League Round of 16 will take place on March 4. The draw has cast doubt on the chances of three out of the four main tournament favorites. Is there a Liverpool curse? How will Arsenal cope without strikers?
Who Will Win UCL 24/25?
We will discuss the prospects of English teams, analyze all matchups, and, of course, suggest the best betting options.
English Teams’ Chances in the UCL Round of 16
After the draw, Liverpool dropped from the bookmakers’ top-favorite spot for the title, while Arsenal saw their odds improve. Aston Villa, meanwhile, are still enjoying a lucky run. But fortune has not been kind to English teams overall, as they all ended up in the same half of the bracket. As a result, the new bookmaker favorites are now Spanish teams.
Nationality of Winner
Liverpool vs PSG: A Final Before the Final
Just a couple of months ago, Arne Slot’s men would have been the clear favorites in this tie. They dominated the group stage with seven wins in eight matches, ranked among the top three for goals conceded (5), and finished in the top five for goal difference (+12).
Mohamed Salah, following his hair transplant, has regained supreme confidence. No one in the Premier League can stop him, and he’s shining in the UCL too—only six players have more assists than his four, and they’re just one ahead.
However, Liverpool’s form has slightly dipped in the new year: 7 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal difference of 29-15. Worse still, they have won just 2 of their last 5 matches. The most worrying sign? In all their non-wins, they failed to meet bookmaker expectations, despite having a 60%+ chance of winning.
It feels like Liverpool are cursed—they struggle to win European trophies when labeled as favorites. Unless, of course, their opponents are Tottenham...
PSG vs Liverpool (05.03): Who Will Win?
While Slot’s squad are slight favorites to advance
11/20
, bookmakers favor PSG in the first leg in Paris.
Luis Enrique’s team is a well-oiled machine. PSG in 2025: 12 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, with a goal difference of 40-12. Kvaratskhelia has fit right in, and Ousmane Dembélé is scoring non-stop. Given that he’s currently a top contender for the Golden Boot and already has six UCL goals, it’s surprising that bookmakers are offering such long odds.
Yes, PSG have serious finishing issues—despite an open-play xG of 63.31, they’ve only scored 53. Liverpool won’t be so forgiving of their wastefulness, but the Reds will need to figure out how to handle PSG’s four wingers.
Arsenal vs PSV: How to Score Without Strikers?
After the draw, Arsenal’s UCL title odds matched Liverpool’s. Bookmakers see the Gunners as clear favorites against PSV—in fact, only Inter have shorter odds to progress among all the Round of 16 teams.
Arsenal vs PSV Stats
Arsenal |
Stats |
PSV |
16 |
Goals for (League stage) |
12 |
53.4 % |
Ball Possession |
55.8 % |
10.3 |
Acc Long Balls |
24.2 |
But some statistics look disastrous for Arsenal. PSV are one of the highest-scoring teams in Europe and completely dominated Juventus in their last crucial match. Their xG was 3.4 compared to 1.7, and possession was 59% against 41%. PSV have zero home defeats in top matches, and all their opponents—except Girona—were the bookmakers’ favorites.
Arsenal, meanwhile, are practically without strikers. Here’s their list of injured attacking players: Havertz, Saka, Jesus, Martinelli. They’ve also suffered two defeats in their last three matches, including one against West Ham.
PSV vs. Arsenal (04.03): Who Will Win?
Despite this, bookmakers have no doubts about Arsenal’s progression, but the odds for an away win seem slightly undervalued. Likely, the Gunners will avoid risks in Eindhoven against such an attacking team, settle for a draw, and then take advantage of PSV’s high defensive line at home. After all, Arsenal have won 100% of their home UCL matches this season with a total score of 8-0.
For the third season in a row, Arsenal face PSV. Mikel Arteta’s side has struggled away against the Dutch team but thrashed them 4-0 at the Emirates Stadium in September 2023.
Aston Villa vs. Club Brugge: Emery + Asensio + Rashford = Success
On paper, Aston Villa have the easiest opponent among the English clubs. However, the Belgians have already proven they are no pushovers, having beaten Atalanta. They even won their head-to-head match against Villa earlier this season. Club Brugge are currently on a 20-match unbeaten streak.
Club Brugge vs. Aston Villa (04.03): Who Will Win?
We believe Brugge’s surprises are running out. Yes, they have held their own against top teams and even led against Man City at one point. But Emery in knockout football is an insurmountable obstacle for underdogs.
Unai Emery has built a reputation as a cup specialist, boasting four Europa League titles and even guiding the modest Villarreal to the Champions League semifinals. In goal, they have the outstanding Emiliano Martínez, who has conceded only six goals despite an expected total of 10.1.
And how about their recent transfer additions: Asensio and Rashford? In their recent match against Chelsea (2-1), they tore the opposition apart. Asensio scored a brace, while Rashford provided two assists.
You can joke all you want about Rashford’s “hangover” photos from the press conference, but the numbers tell the story: In the 45 minutes Rashford played, he misplaced just one of 16 passes, took five touches in the opposition box, created three chances, provided two assists, and regained possession three times.
Other Round of 16 Fixtures
Who will be waiting for the English teams in the quarter-finals? Let's take a look at the other matchups.
Real Madrid vs. Atlético Madrid: Roles Reversed, But Real Advances
When you hear "Madrid derby," you think "draw." The most recent La Liga clash ended 1-1. On paper, Real Madrid are the favorites. Mbappé has hit top form, scoring 14 goals in 14 games in 2025. Overall, Madrid have won 11 of their last 15 matches.
Atlético, on the other hand, have won 7 of their 11 matches this year, but their schedule is brutal: Barcelona, Athletic, Real, Getafe, Real, Barcelona. Their hope lies in Real’s lingering defensive issues. Atlético are third in the UCL this season for goals per 90 minutes (2.5).
Barcelona vs. Benfica: Easy Route for the Catalans
Barcelona got lucky with their side of the bracket. Anything less than a semifinal appearance would be a failure.
Benfica have conceded three or more goals in three of their ten UCL matches. Among the remaining teams, they rank second-worst for goals conceded per 90 minutes (1.5). And now they face a super-attacking Barcelona that have 10 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses in 2025, with a goal difference of 42-12.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Lille: Battle of the Underdogs
Arguably the weakest pairing. Dortmund have only one win in 2025 and sit 11th in the Bundesliga. Lille have been inconsistent this year, with 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses. They’ve dropped to fifth in Ligue 1 and were knocked out of the French Cup by Dunkerque from the second division.
Apart from hardcore fans, this match will probably only interest fantasy football enthusiasts who believe in Guirassy.
Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen: Can the Bavarians Recover in Time?
These teams have already faced off twice this season. In their first meeting, Bayern were dominant: 1-1 with an xG of 1.4 vs. 0.1. But in the rematch, it was a different story—0-0 with an xG of 0.09 vs. 2.43 in Leverkusen’s favor.
Bayern have been shaky this year, barely scraping past Celtic. Meanwhile, Bayer are coached by Xabi Alonso, who has never lost to Bayern (3 wins, 3 draws).
Inter Milan vs. Feyenoord: The Last Italian Hope Holds Strong
Everyone says Inter got lucky. A well-balanced, experienced squad faces a weakened Feyenoord side that lost Giménez and now has a new coach. Robin van Persie arrived from Heerenveen, where his record wasn’t exactly stellar (9 wins, 11 losses, 6 draws).
In case you forgot, Inter conceded just one goal in the entire group stage.
Chelsea
Copenhagen
Manchester Utd
Real Sociedad
Tottenham
AZ Alkmaar
Rapid Wien
Borac
Lazio
Plzen
