United States Grand Prix 2024: Predictions and Betting Tips for the Formula 1 Race
The Formula 1 stage in the United States will take place from October 18 to 20 at the Circuit of the Americas near Austin, Texas. This will be the 19th race of the current season.
What odds have the bookmakers prepared for the USA leg? Our review highlights the best odds for the racing weekend.
Despite sceptics writing off Red Bull in the 2024 season, Max Verstappen can still compete with his peers, even if his car is admittedly inferior. However, following recent technical investigations, his chances of reaching the podium have diminished slightly.
Who will win the 2024 United States Grand Prix
2024 United States Grand Prix Winner Odds
Despite the catastrophic gap to Norris in Singapore, Max managed to fend off other challengers and maintain second place. Meanwhile, Charles, who finished only fifth, seems to doubt his pace to challenge Lando and snatch second place in the championship.
Bookmakers are also thrilled with McLaren's main star and are confident that with his current speed, he’ll secure the upcoming stage with ease.
Formula 1 Drivers' Championship Title Betting Odds
Notably, some analysts and even drivers believe Lando still has every chance to move ahead on points and claim the championship. Given the experience of previous races, it’s clear that Max, in the current Red Bull car, struggles not only to overtake but also to hold off Norris for more than a few laps.
Mercedes driver George Russell is confident the gap between the leaders will close rapidly:
Naturally, the potential title fight implies absolute obedience from the second driver to the team’s leadership. Thus, McLaren needs to stop playing with internal team battles between their two drivers before it leads to a silly mutual DNF or other issues.
This is also the view of former Formula 1 champion Jenson Button:
Personal standings for the 2024 season and odds to win
Banned T-Tray and Penalty for Red Bull
The major scandal of recent weeks has been another high-profile violation of the car's technical regulations. By mid-October, it was revealed that one team found a way to adjust the settings of a downforce element at the front underbelly, known as the T-Tray. Rumours say they did this during parc fermé (closed park) between qualifying and the race.
It was later revealed that this team was Red Bull. Following complaints from many teams, the FIA conducted an investigation, found the prohibited system, and concluded that adjusting the T-Tray provides an aerodynamic advantage by altering the car's ride height.
It was also discovered that the T-Tray allows optimal ride height settings both with an empty tank during qualifying and a full tank during the race distance.
Red Bull acknowledged the trick but noted that using it with an assembled chassis is still not permissible. However, they were instructed to immediately rectify all violations.
Verstappen intentionally avoids commenting on this situation, steering conversations with journalists elsewhere. Instead, he stirs up drama at McLaren, countering Button's stance by suggesting that Oscar Piastri focus solely on himself and ignore any team orders.
While the Dutchman's tactics are clever, it's unlikely the team management will consider Oscar's wishes if the championship lead is down to just a few points.
The main question remains: how significant will Red Bull’s abandonment of their banned system prove to be?
United States Grand Prix History
The United States Grand Prix began in the 1959 season, with most races held at the Watkins Glen circuit. The first winner was Bruce McLaren driving a Cooper-Climax.
Over the years, this event has moved through several tracks, including Indianapolis, Phoenix, Watkins Glen, Riverside, and Sebring. Today, the races are hosted by the Circuit of the Americas in Austin.
Lewis Hamilton holds the record for most wins at this track, having claimed victory in 2007, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017. Michael Schumacher follows with five victories in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006. Tied for third with three wins each are Graham Hill, Jim Clark, and Max Verstappen.
Ferrari has won most often at various tracks in the U.S., with a total of 10 victories.
The Circuit of the Americas is 5,513 metres in length, with drivers completing 56 laps in total.
United States Grand Prix Prediction
Red Bull fans, noticeably disheartened, are left wondering how many races their beloved cars completed with the banned system that gave them an advantage. And, crucially, how will the chassis perform after its removal?
We'll only find out the answer on Sunday, but for now, speculation is all we have. Nonetheless, even a bet on Max finishing in the top three seems quite risky given recent developments.
Lando Norris, on the other hand, is set to continue unlocking the full potential of his fully compliant car, likely securing both pole position and the race win with ease.
However, the most intriguing battle for a spot in the top 3 will ignite between Charles Leclerc and Oscar Piastri. After Singapore, Piastri has closed the gap in their rivalry to just 8 points, so a shuffle in the standings post-Austin is well within the realm of possibility.
That is, of course, unless the aforementioned team tactics spoil Oscar’s weekend.
United States Grand Prix Schedule and Weather Forecast
According to meteorologists, Austin will present drivers with unusually hot and sunny weather for mid-October: +27-29 with no precipitation.
When to watch | Event |
October 18, 6.30am on Sky Sports F1 | Practice One |
October 18, 10.30pm on Sky Sports F1 | Sprint Qualifying |
October 19, 7.00pm on Sky Sports F1 | Sprint |
October 19, 11.00pm on Sky Sports F1 | Qualifying |
October 20, 8.00pm on Sky Sports F1 | The United States Grand Prix |
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