Who, if not Pep: Man City’s Next Manager Odds
After a humiliating 1:5 defeat to Arsenal, the blue half of Manchester is left in shock. Could it really come to sacking Pep Guardiola at the most crucial stage of the season? Let’s take a look at whether City have a way out of this slump, if Pep will remain as head coach, and who might replace him. And, of course, we have the best betting options.
Manager of Manchester City (16.08.25)
Man City Next Manager Betting Odds
The worst nightmare for City’s glory hunters and the sweetest dream for their haters has come true—Guardiola’s machine has broken down. And not just a minor glitch—more like a total wreck, ready for the scrapyard. The list of negative records keeps growing every weekend, sometimes even twice a week if there’s a Champions League fixture.
For the first time, City have conceded 4 or more goals in a match on four occasions in a single season. Seven Premier League defeats—their worst tally in five years. Four consecutive losses—something Pep has never experienced in his career. The defeat to Arsenal was City’s heaviest away loss since 2017. If it were anyone else but Pep in charge, they’d have already been shown the door.
Next Man City Manager Odds: Top 5 Contenders
The main secret isn’t what’s happened to Man City, but why Pep has such low odds of saving his job.
Pep Guardiola
So, only a genius could continue to receive backing and have his contract extended until 2027 while everything around him is burning with blue flames.
The Last 5 Matches Before City Managers Were Sacked
Manager |
Season |
Result |
Manuel Pellegrini |
2015-16 |
Victories - 1, Draws - 2, Defeats - 2 |
Roberto Mancini |
2009-13 |
Victories - 2, Draws - 1, Defeats - 2 |
City have two losses in their last five matches. The team barely made it through to the Champions League knockout rounds and has slipped to fifth place in the Premier League. At the start of the year, City were the top favorites in both tournaments, but now the odds are 9/1 with Betfred for the Champions League and 100/1 for the Premier League.
It’s clear that injuries have played a big part in this slump. Now the question is: can the new arrivals—Gonzalez, Marmoush, and Khusanov—step in for Dias, Rodri, and Walker and save Pep? We’ll find out in the next month. If City don't beat Real in the knockout rounds and don't make it back into the Premier League top four, Guardiola will be fired. Screenshot this.
Honestly, Pep has already been at City longer than his tenure at his previous two clubs combined.
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Bayern (2013–2016) – 3 years
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Barcelona (2008–2012) – 4 years
He’s won everything there is to win, including the Champions League with City. Perhaps the only thing keeping him at the club is the new challenge—trying to pull himself out of the deepest crisis of his career.
Xabi Alonso
Bayer’s current coach is now the top favorite for the managerial positions at two superclubs—Real Madrid and Man City. Ironically, these two teams will meet in the Champions League knockout rounds. There’s a strong chance that the losing side will end up with Xabi Alonso as their new manager.
Everyone’s written about his achievements in the Bundesliga, but what’s more important for City is that Alonso is well-suited to the role of a crisis manager. When he took over Bayer in the fall of 2022, the team was 17th and in the relegation zone. Under his leadership, they climbed to 6th place, and the following season, they won the league.
The real question is how a coach with experience at Real Sociedad B and Bayer will adapt to managing a squad worth 1.3 billion euros.
Michel
City is one of the most suitable clubs for Spanish managers—at least from a player perspective. Silva, Rodri, and Ferran Torres can certainly attest to that. Perhaps this is also why two of the main favorites for the role are Spanish.
Michel, the coach from Girona, has led clubs from the Segunda to La Liga three times. The achievement is impressive, but is this the kind of specialist City needs? What if he’s another Emery—someone who only gets results with mid-table teams?
Michel focuses on attack and possession. Last season in La Liga, only Real Madrid scored more goals than his teams. And Dovbyk became the league’s top scorer under his guidance. Furthermore, Michel knows how to integrate young players into the squad, which is a crucial skill given City’s recent signings.
Finally, Girona is part of the City Football Group network, making deals between the two clubs easier to arrange (Savinho, for example, moved to the Etihad Stadium from Girona last summer).
Vincent Company
Another young manager who could soon be available on the free agent market if Bayern fails to make a deep run in the Champions League. Yes, they’re leading in the Bundesliga, but let’s not forget the Kane curse. And what was that performance in the last Champions League round against Feyenoord? (0:3).
Kompany is a Manchester City legend, and he would be a popular choice among the club’s supporters if he were asked to replace Guardiola. However, he’s the least suited to be a crisis manager among the top 5 candidates. After playing with Burnley in the yo-yo league, he’s shown that he struggles to pull teams out of a slump. And that’s exactly where City finds itself right now.
Roberto De Zerbi
Guardiola has openly expressed his admiration for Roberto De Zerbi, who led Brighton to a sixth-place finish in the 2022-23 Premier League season. He’s the only one among the top 5 (apart from Guardiola himself) who has had positive Premier League experience.
City has already had a successful history with Italian managers—think Mancini, not Balotelli. And De Zerbi won’t disappoint the fans who are accustomed to attacking football. His Brighton team was fourth in goals scored, outpacing both Manchester United and Newcastle. Now, his current Marseille side sits second in Ligue 1, trailing only PSG in goals scored.
Conclusion
It’s clear that the current City management isn’t fond of making drastic changes mid-season. Pellegrini was dismissed in the summer of 2016, and Mancini in May 2013. They really want to let Pep finish out this turbulent period. Expectations have already been lowered. Forget the Champions League; the main goal now is to stay in the top 4 of the Premier League. This is a feasible task, which is why the odds on Guardiola are so low. When it comes to betting on new managers, bookmakers aren’t making a mistake with these odds for the Premier League this season.
By March, it will be clear whether the targets are being met. If not, we’d bet on Michel. His main competitor, Xabi Alonso, is already being linked with Real Madrid. But Michel is an attacking coach practically from the Man City club system. Girona has been knocked out of the Champions League, so they could take a risk and go for a new manager. After all, even Amorim and Sporting didn’t shy away from the prospect of ruining their season.