Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Champions League match.
Milan’s confident 4:0 victory over Venezia on Saturday does not hide the fact that Paulo Fonseca has yet to solve their defensive woes ahead of the clash with Liverpool. It seems they will come out with a predictable game plan (creating more chances than their opponent), but the competition in the Champions League is far tougher than against a Serie A newcomer.
AC Milan
In four Serie A matches, Milan have only collected five points (ninth place), with a high xG of 7.73 running parallel to a poor xGA of 5.93. Due to injuries to Alessandro Florenzi, Malick Thiaw, and Davide Calabria, the coaching staff is forced to put Emerson Royal on the right flank of the defence, and he has had a shaky start with his new club. For instance, both goals against Lazio (2:2) came from his position, resulting in the Brazilian receiving the lowest rating among starting players.
Liverpool
Liverpool, just before their Champions League opener, suffered a setback in the Premier League with a 1:0 loss to Nottingham Forest. The opponents capitalised on a counter-attacking style and some sheer luck (30% possession and 3 shots on target). Despite Liverpool having 15 shots (5 on target), they couldn’t break through. However, in the derby against Manchester United (3:0), the team showed they could effectively capitalise on chances, creating 1.43 xG from 11 shots when the opponent focused on attack—an approach Milan is likely to adopt.
AC Milan vs Liverpool Prediction
In the group stage of the Champions League three years ago, Liverpool defeated Milan twice (3:2 and 2:1). The English side will once again take the field at San Siro from a position of strength, with a much better chance of securing points. The hosts will struggle to contain the formidable attacking force of Liverpool.
