Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Saudi Super Cup match.
For Al-Qadsiah this will be their first-ever appearance in the Saudi Super Cup, while Al-Ahli fell at the semi-final stage last year. It may not be as high-profile as Al-Nassr vs Al-Ittihad, but it still promises intrigue for football fans.
Al-Qadsiah
For a club that was still playing in the second division as recently as spring 2024, taking part in this Super Cup is a breakthrough. In the 2024/25 campaign, the team finished fourth in the Pro League and reached the King’s Cup final. Al-Qadsiah are gradually edging closer to a place in the AFC Champions League. Their main transfer move saw Mateo Retegui arrive for almost €70 million to replace Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who had been their main attacking weapon last season.
Al-Ahli
Al-Ahli underperformed compared to the previous campaign — they didn’t even finish in the top three, but their fifth-place spot was still enough to book a Super Cup appearance in Hong Kong. Matthias Jaissle has added Enzo Millot, who replaces Gabri Veiga, now at Porto, as the creative hub. However, the main hope both in this semi-final and the season overall will again be Ivan Toney: the English striker netted 23 goals last term, finishing as the league’s second-highest scorer.
Al-Qadsiah vs Al-Ahli Prediction
This looks like a game that could go either way, so it makes sense to look at the scoring angle. Both teams boast strong frontmen, but last season Al-Qadsiah never managed more than a single goal against Al-Ahli (1:0, 1:4). The visitors’ defence remains somewhat unpredictable, while Retegui still needs time to settle into the system — he has just one goal in 166 minutes so far, and Al-Qadsiah have already recorded a goalless draw this season. That’s why we're backing their under in goals. The real question is whether one goal will be enough to win it.
