Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Nations League match.
Unlike other group stage quads, the final standings between Albania, Ukraine, the Czech Republic, and Georgia are still undecided. In Tirana, the Ukranians are the nominal favourites, having found decent form and going on an unbeaten run.
Albania
Since the second round, Albania have picked up only 3 points out of a possible 12. On Saturday against the Czech Republic (0:0), they created 0.36 xG, with just two shots on target. It seems the coaching staff are reluctant to take risks in attack, having found an ideal balance in defence—here, the play is orchestrated by goalkeeper Thomas Strakosha and defender Ardian Ismajli. Albania have only scored three goals in five Nations League matches, the lowest tally in the group.
Ukraine
A draw with Georgia (1:1) did not allow Ukraine to climb off the bottom of the group, although they still have a chance of reaching the playoffs. In Batumi, they maintained an advantage for about 70 minutes after a Solomon Kvirkvelia own goal, and their general attacking reluctance (0.86-0.94 xG) indicated that the coaching staff managed to contain Khvicha Kvaratskhelia's dangerous counter-attacks. Against the Albanians, Ukraine will have an easier time defensively, allowing them to focus more on the attack.
Albania vs Ukraine Prediction
On neutral ground in Prague, Albania managed to defeat Ukraine (2:1), though they allowed 0.85 xGA. Clearly, Ukraine have learnt from that setback—their handicap (0) looks like an interesting choice.