Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Madrid match.
For Alex de Minaur, the Madrid Masters presents an excellent opportunity to prove that his recent improvements on clay are genuine. The Australian has yet to enjoy a deep run at this Masters 1000 event. For Denis Shapovalov, simply reaching the third round can already be considered a positive result, given that the Canadian has struggled to make an impact at major tournaments in recent years and has a poor record against top players on clay.
Alex de Minaur
Alex de Minaur has been showing strong form on clay this season. In 2025, he has won six of his eight matches on this surface, and in each of his victories, he has kept his opponents from winning more than nine games. Against Lorenzo Sonego, de Minaur committed just nine unforced errors while striking 12 winners and forcing his opponent into 32 errors.
Denis Shapovalov
Denis Shapovalov has impressed by reaching the third round, but it seems unlikely he will progress further. Throughout his career, Shapovalov has managed only one win against top-10 players on clay (record 1:9). In the previous round, he defeated Kei Nishikori (6:1, 6:4), showing solid aggression, but he also committed 15 unforced errors. Additionally, in his match against the Japanese player, the Canadian posted a low first-serve percentage of just 60%.
Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction
Alex de Minaur is known for grinding down his opponents and limiting their ability to win games, and it will be difficult for Denis Shapovalov to impose his aggressive style over the course of a long match. In their head-to-head history, Alex de Minaur has won four out of five meetings, and in this encounter, the seventh seed is unlikely to encounter significant resistance.
