Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Madrid Masters match.
In the fourth round of the top-tier clay tournament in the Spanish capital, world number 6 Alex de Minaur will face world No. 10 Lorenzo Musetti, both of whom progressed from the previous round on merit.
Alex de Minaur
The 29th seed Denis Shapovalov spent an hour and a half trying to hold off the Australian (3:6, 6:7), but Alex de Minaur was rock-solid from the baseline and rarely dropped points on serve, winning 79% of points on his first serve and 75% on his second. Despite producing nearly twice as many winners (21 to 11), the Canadian's efforts were undermined by five double faults, while Alex de Minaur made none.
Lorenzo Musetti
In the third round, Lorenzo Musetti faced an even sterner challenge in 17th seed Stefanos Tsitsipas, who was still ranked inside the top 10 as recently as last season. The Italian came through thanks to his mental toughness and composure under pressure. Although the Greek delivered flashes of brilliance, he faltered at crucial junctures. In the opening set, Stefanos Tsitsipas led 5:2, but dropped serve at 5:3 and missed a set point at 5:4. Musetti then reeled off five straight games to take the set 7:5. The second set saw no breaks of serve, but Musetti dominated the tiebreak (7:3).
Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction
At this stage, Alex de Minaur appears to be in better form than Stefanos Tsitsipas, having won 25 of his 33 matches this season. However, in head-to-head encounters, Lorenzo Musetti leads (2-1). Crucially, their only previous meeting on clay went the Italian's way, just recently in the Monte Carlo semi-finals (1:6, 6:4, 7:6). With that in mind, rather than picking a winner, the better option may be to back the match to go the distance.
