Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Madrid match.
Alex de Minaur is currently on the most successful clay-court run of his career. The Australian has shown steady improvement with each tournament and comes into this match as the clear favourite against Lorenzo Sonego. Although the Italian managed to get past Miomir Kecmanović, it was far from a convincing performance.
Alex de Minaur
In 2025, Alex de Minaur has proven consistent on clay, winning five out of his last seven matches on the surface and reaching at least the third round in both Monte Carlo and Barcelona. During this stretch, he earned victories over three top-20 opponents — Tomas Machac, Daniil Medvedev, and Grigor Dimitrov — and posted competitive performances against Matteo Berrettini and Carlos Alcaraz, taking a minimum of eight games from each. Over the past year, Alex de Minaur has only lost twice to players ranked outside the top 40, boasting a 31–2 record in such encounters.
Lorenzo Sonego
Lorenzo Sonego overcame Miomir Kecmanović in straight sets (6:4, 7:6), but was inefficient on break points, converting just one of nine opportunities, while also committing four double faults. This season, Lorenzo Sonego has struggled in clay-court Masters tournaments, failing to progress past the first round. In Marrakech, he lost to world No. 95 Vit Kopriva (2:6, 7:5, 4:6), and in Monte Carlo, he was beaten by Pedro Portero (4:6, 6:1, 2:6), despite entering both matches in a relatively favourable position. Since the start of 2023, he holds a 20-20 record on clay, winning just half of his matches.
Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Sonego Prediction
Alex de Minaur enters this second-round match in Madrid as the clear frontrunner, both physically and mentally. His game is well suited to counter Lorenzo Sonego's strengths and is likely to draw errors, even on the Italian’s serve — Lorenzo Sonego has committed 11 double faults across his last three clay-court appearances. Alex de Minaur leads their head-to-head 3:0, having covered a -4.5 games handicap in two of those matches. The Australian is well placed to secure another convincing win and progress further in the tournament.
