Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Wimbledon match.
On paper, Roberto Carballes Baena’s world ranking of 74 doesn’t look disastrous, but hardly anyone gives him a real chance against Alex de Minaur. The Australian is priced as a near-certainty to progress.
Roberto Carballes Baena
The main reason lies in Carballes Baena’s fitness. He suffered a thigh injury in the opening round of the Rome Masters back in early May and was forced to withdraw from Roland Garros just one day before his scheduled match. He hasn’t played a single grass-court tournament this year, and his track record on the surface is poor — finishing with a negative win-loss record across the last three seasons. Grass is clearly not his game.
Alex de Minaur
De Minaur, on the other hand, enjoyed a fantastic 2024 grass-court swing, posting a 7-1 record thanks to a title in ’s-Hertogenbosch and a run to the Wimbledon quarter-finals — which only ended due to his withdrawal through injury. This season, the No. 11 seed chose to compete just once on grass, appearing at Queen’s Club. There, he suffered an early elimination in the opening round to Jiri Lehecka.
Alex de Minaur vs Roberto Carballes Baena Prediction
However, Lehecka went on to reach the final in that event, while Carballes Baena hasn’t played a match in two months. The difference in match fitness and surface form is enormous, and it points to a routine win for Alex de Minaur.
