Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Madrid Masters match.
Although Alex Michelsen is not widely recognised as a clay-court specialist, he has already secured more main draw victories (1:0) on this surface at the start of the season than Alexander Bublik. That margin appears likely to increase.
Alex Michelsen
The 20-year-old American only made his ATP Tour debut in 2023, yet he is already outperforming his previous best campaign. Michelsen has won 60% of his matches so far this season (13:9), compared to a 34:30 record in 2024. At his first clay-court event in Houston, Michelsen advanced to the quarter-finals before falling to second seed and eventual finalist Frances Tiafoe (5:7, 1:6).
Alexander Bublik
By contrast, Bublik is enduring a third consecutive season with a negative win-loss record. The opening phase of this year has been particularly disappointing, with only three wins against ten defeats. His runner-up finish at a Challenger event in Phoenix and a couple of qualifying victories at the ATP 500 tournament in Munich offer slight improvement, bringing his overall tally to a modest 9:12. Nevertheless, the core issue persists: the Kazakhstani has yet to find his footing in 2025. Bublik has won just five of his 14 encounters against top-100 players.
Alex Michelsen vs Alexander Bublik Prediction
The conditions in Madrid, with its high altitude and thinner air, lend themselves to a faster style of clay-court tennis, resembling the tempo of hard courts. In this respect, Alex Michelsen holds a clear advantage, having demonstrated much greater consistency on hard surfaces than his opponent. His early season performances on synthetic courts reinforce this edge, and there is strong reason to back the young American to prevail in this match-up.
