Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Cincinnati match.
Alex Michelsen continues to impress and has reached the third round in Cincinnati, where he will face Holger Rune for the first time. For the American, this is a chance to showcase his progress against a Dane who has yet to find his top form.
Alex Michelsen
In 2025, Michelsen has won four of nine matches against top-20 opponents, including victories over Stefanos Tsitsipas, Lorenzo Musetti, Francisco Cerundolo and Karen Khachanov. In the previous round, he turned the match around against Corentin Moutet (3:6, 6:3, 6:4), showing confidence at the net, covering the angles well, and winning 80% of points behind his first serve. Backed by a home crowd, he looks ready to compete with top-tier players.
Holger Rune
Rune’s record against opponents under 23 this season is underwhelming — just 50% wins (2-2). His match against Roman Safiullin (7:5, 7:6) again highlighted his struggles in converting attacking opportunities: frequent attempts down the line ended in errors, including four double faults, and he showed signs of emotional instability. His first serve was also disappointing, with 56% accuracy and 68% points won.
Alex Michelsen vs Holger Rune Prediction
Michelsen has the tools to keep this close and cover the games handicap. Even in long sets or potential tie-breaks, the American should be able to beat the +3.5 line.
