Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Roland Garros match.
In a surprising third-round matchup at Roland Garros, both Alexander Bublik and Henrique Rocha arrive as giant-killers, having knocked out more established names. Bublik stunned Alex de Minaur (2:6, 2:6, 6:4, 6:3, 6:2) in five sets, while qualifier Rocha came from two sets down to defeat Jakub Mensik (2:6, 1:6, 6:4, 6:3, 6:3). Now, the stage is set for one of these dark horses to break through to the last 16.
Alexander Bublik
Despite his well-known aversion to clay, Bublik has quietly built a solid record on the surface this season — 13 wins in 18 matches. He’s particularly effective against lower-ranked players, winning 5 of his last 7 matches against opponents outside the top 100. Against de Minaur, Bublik showcased some of his finest tennis: rallying from two sets down, hitting 12 aces, and winning 73% of points behind his first serve. His performance was loose and fearless — complete with tweener winners on set points — and when in this mood, he becomes a dangerous opponent on any surface.
Henrique Rocha
The Portuguese qualifier deserves credit for his gritty comeback against Jakub Mensik (2:6, 1:6, 6:4, 6:3, 6:3), but the win owed as much to his opponent’s collapse as to his own brilliance. Mensik committed 53 unforced errors and served poorly — just 61% first-serve accuracy and 67% points won behind it. Rocha’s overall ATP-level record, especially on clay, remains unconvincing: just 3 wins in 9 matches against top-100 players, and before Paris, he had lost 7 of his last 8 clay matches — all on the Challenger circuit.
Alexander Bublik vs Henrique Rocha Prediction
Bublik holds clear advantages in experience, firepower, and composure. Even on clay, he’s proven too strong for mid- and lower-tier opposition, and Rocha — despite exceeding expectations — is unlikely to offer enough resistance to halt Bublik’s run.
