Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Miami match.
At the start of the season, they had similar rankings, but 2.5 months have significantly separated them. Alexander Bublik is the favourite for this match, although his place in the world rankings does not reflect that.
Alexander Bublik
When he started his campaign in Adelaide in the second week of the year, the Kazakh player was ranked 33rd in the world. However, ahead of this match, he has dropped to 80th. Why such a decline? Firstly, Bublik has barely won any matches. He has only managed two victories this season, both in French tournaments—Montpellier and Marseille. In all other events, he has been eliminated in the early rounds. Secondly, he started last season too well, reaching the semi-finals in Adelaide, winning the title in Montpellier, and making the final in Dubai.
Sebastián Báez
The Argentine, on the other hand, began 2025 ranked 28th, and his position has barely changed—he is now 36th in the ATP rankings. Báez has recorded nine wins and five losses this year. In late February, he reached back-to-back finals, winning in Rio de Janeiro but falling short in Santiago. So why is Sebastián Báez the underdog in this match despite his recent form? Simply because all his success has come on his favoured clay surface. The moment he stepped onto hard courts this season, he lost—all three times. Yes, he fought hard in each of those matches, pushing his opponents past the two-hour mark, but this is clearly not his best surface.
Alexander Bublik vs Sebastián Báez Prediction
At last year’s Miami tournament, Báez was seeded 18th but crashed out in the first round, losing easily to world No. 50 Dominik Koepfer (3:6, 2:6). That is why we are backing the Kazakh to win this match.
