Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Acapulco match.
Alexander Zverev returns to hard courts following his surprising decision to play in South America immediately after the Australian Open final. The German endured a hectic schedule and escaped the pressure after his defeat to Jannik Sinner. However, he is now preparing for the spring Masters, with his first test in Acapulco, where he secured the title in 2021.
Alexander Zverev
The German is currently ranked No. 2 in the world, having claimed 23 ATP titles on all surfaces except grass. Zverev is renowned for his powerful backhand, and his serve frequently reaches speeds of up to 200 km/h. Consequently, he has averaged 11.5 aces per match on hard courts this season, with a first serve percentage of 70%.
Matteo Arnaldi
Arnaldi is a clay-court specialist who struggles on hard courts. This season, Matteo has alternated between wins and losses, with his primary issue being a low break point conversion rate. Over the past year on hard courts, he has converted only 22% of break points—well below his career average of 24.5%. Furthermore, Arnaldi has lost six of his last seven matches against top-5 opponents.
Alexander Zverev vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction
The two players have not met before, but it is evident that Zverev holds a clear advantage. The fast courts in Acapulco suit the German far better than the Italian, and the difference in class and experience further favours him. He has reached the finals in Acapulco twice, including winning the title in 2021. We predict a 2:0 win for Zverev.