Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Madrid match.
Following his title win at the Munich ATP 500 tournament, Alexander Zverev arrives in Madrid as a two-time champion at this Masters event. Zverev appears to be regaining form and is making a push to close the gap on Jannik Sinner, with Carlos Alcaraz also in contention. Roberto Bautista Agut, meanwhile, plays in front of home fans, but at 37 years of age, it is becoming increasingly difficult for him to compete with younger, top-tier players.
Alexander Zverev
The German boasts an outstanding record on the Madrid clay, with a win percentage of 82%—23 victories in 28 matches. After a disappointing February and March, Alexander Zverev bounced back in Munich, winning four of his five matches in straight sets. The only match in which he dropped a set came against Tallon Griekspoor (6:7, 7:6, 6:4). Zverev also holds a commanding head-to-head lead over Roberto Bautista Agut, winning five of their seven encounters, including their most recent meeting on clay in Monte Carlo in 2023 (6:4, 6:4).
Roberto Bautista Agut
Roberto Bautista Agut advanced past the first round by defeating Jaume Munar, but the match lasted two and a half hours and took a physical toll. His track record against top-10 opponents on clay remains poor, with zero wins in 19 matches. He increasingly struggles to manage the pace and intensity imposed by younger opponents. Against Alexander Zverev on clay, the Spaniard has lost all three of their matches without taking a set.
Alexander Zverev vs Roberto Bautista Agut Prediction
Alexander Zverev's current form, his excellent history at the Madrid Masters, and Roberto Bautista Agut's difficulties against elite clay-court players all point toward a straight-sets win for the German. Zverev holds a clear edge across all major performance statistics and is expected to take full advantage of his opponent’s fatigue from a physically draining opening round.
