Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the WTA 1000 Miami Open match.
Alexandra Eala has been the breakout story of the week in Miami. The Filipino wildcard stunned the tennis world with back-to-back victories over world No. 5 Madison Keys and 25th-ranked Jelena Ostapenko, and now faces the experienced Paula Badosa, who has been tested in every round.
Alexandra Eala
At the start of 2025, Eala struggled even against players ranked outside the top 200. But in Miami, she’s flipped the script with wins over Katie Volynets, Jelena Ostapenko, and Madison Keys — all in straight sets. However, context matters: her opponents were well below their best. Volynets and Keys won less than 50% of points on their first serve, while Ostapenko, despite winning 66% of first-serve points, landed it just 54% of the time. Eala’s rise is impressive, but she’s played only one match against a top-20 opponent before this, and experience at this level is still lacking.
Paula Badosa
The Spaniard overcame Clara Tauson in round two (6:3, 7:6) with some brilliant numbers: 65% first serves in, 83% of points won on first serve, and 7/7 saved break points. That said, she’s been drawn into long matches this week, needing tie-breaks in both wins, and went to three sets against world No. 141 Victoria Mboko in her opener. Badosa remains solid but certainly beatable if her level dips.
Alexandra Eala vs Paula Badosa Prediction
Eala is riding a wave of confidence and will pose a real threat if Badosa offers up the kind of unforced errors and lapses in focus we’ve seen earlier in the tournament. The Spaniard’s greater experience will help her navigate the pressure, but her recent form suggests this won’t be a quick win. With both players showing they can take sets and hang tough in rallies, this match looks set to go deep, regardless of the outcome.
