Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Cincinnati match.
Cincinnati will stage a match with a revenge subplot. A year ago, Alexei Popyrin comfortably beat Andrey Rublev in the Montreal final, but now the Russian has the chance to hit back — and with added motivation as he defends points from last year’s quarter-final run. The Ohio event has historically been a good one for Rublev, who has previously reached a final here and twice made the last eight.
Alexei Popyrin
Alexei Popyrin may have won four of his last six hard-court matches, but overall this season he’s been underwhelming on the surface — just six wins against eight defeats, despite a relatively soft schedule. In seven hard-court events this year, the Australian has never gone beyond his second match. In Cincinnati’s opener against Martín Landaluce (7:6, 6:3), he was far from clinical, landing just 53% of first serves and committing seven double faults.
Andrey Rublev
Andrey Rublev, by contrast, enjoys playing in Cincinnati — since 2019 he has won 12 of 17 matches here (71%), and last year he came close to knocking out eventual champion Jannik Sinner. In his opening match this year, Rublev eased past Thiem in straight sets, firing 12 aces and winning 85% of points behind his first serve. Since Wimbledon, he’s been steadily finding form, with six wins from his last nine matches and a quarter-final in Toronto.
Alexei Popyrin vs Andrey Rublev Prediction
Given Rublev’s strong track record in Cincinnati and his current form, the Russian appears well-positioned to overcome Popyrin, who is improving but remains unconvincing on hard courts.
