Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Cincinnati match.
Rublev has already hit top form on hard courts, while Alcaraz is facing his first real test of the summer on the blue surface. The Russian took a set off the Spaniard at Wimbledon, and in US conditions his chances look even stronger.
Andrey Rublev
Rublev has been producing strong results since July — a semi-final in Los Cabos, a quarter-final in Toronto, and now a confident run into the last eight in Cincinnati. This week he has won over 80% of points on his first serve, dropped just three games on serve, and fired 38 aces. Cincinnati has historically been a good hunting ground for him — since 2019 Andrey has a 14-5 record here (74%), including a final in 2021 and a quarter-final last year.
Carlos Alcaraz
For Alcaraz, the hard-court season has been more challenging than other surfaces — no finals and surprise losses to Jiri Lehecka, Jack Draper and David Goffin. On the way to the Cincinnati quarter-finals he dropped a set to Damir Dzumhur, but handled Hamad Medjedovic (6:4, 6:4) and Luca Nardi (6:1, 6:4) comfortably. However, in none of these matches did Carlos outperform his opponent in winners-to-errors ratio. His first serve hasn’t been dominant either (61% in, 75% points won). Notably, since 2024 Alcaraz has lost five of eight quarter-finals on hard courts.
Andrey Rublev vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
In current form, Rublev is well-placed to push Alcaraz hard. Cincinnati suits him far better historically, and the head-to-head is 3-2 in Alcaraz’s favour — but the only meeting on hard went Rublev’s way (6:2, 6:1 in 2022). Just last month at Wimbledon, the Russian took a set off the Spaniard, and in 2024 on clay he even beat him in three sets. Expect Rublev to take at least one set here.
