Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Beijing match.
For Andrey Rublev this match matters not only as the start of the tournament but also as a gauge of his current level. Flavio Cobolli, by contrast, has progressed in recent months and has established himself in the top 25. The Italian has already beaten Andrey Rublev in the Hamburg final and will be keen to repeat the feat.
Andrey Rublev
Andrey Rublev arrives in shaky form: a defeat in Chengdu to Valentin Royer (world No. 88), a five-set grind at the US Open with Coleman Wong, dropped sets even to lower‑ranked opponents, and was eliminated by Félix Auger-Aliassime. The Russian does have positives on hard courts, including quarter-finals in Toronto and Cincinnati, while his 2025 record stands at 16-11.
Flavio Cobolli
Flavio Cobolli has clearly kicked on this season: a Wimbledon quarter-final, plus runs to the third round at the US Open and at the ATP Masters 1000 in Toronto. However, in six of his last eight matches he has dropped at least one set. In the head-to-head, the Italian owns a comfortable win over Andrey Rublev (6:2, 6:4 in Hamburg), although that came on clay. On hard courts this year his record is a modest 8-11.
Andrey Rublev vs Flavio Cobolli Prediction
Given the numbers and current form, we should not expect a straightforward win for Andrey Rublev. Flavio Cobolli will make it a contest and should at least take a set, and he has a strong chance to cover the games handicap. The Russian is strong on hard courts, but his inconsistency and slow starts work against him. We expect three sets in this match.
