Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Monte Carlo match.
For Andrey Rublev, the Monte Carlo event marks both the start of the clay-court season and a fresh chapter in his career, as he takes to the court for the first time under the coaching of Marat Safin. From a tournament perspective, his motivation is clear — he lifted the trophy here in 2023 and will be determined to assert his credentials from the opening round. For Gaël Monfils, this match represents a chance to extend his tenure at the elite level, although clay has never been his strongest surface.
Andrey Rublev
Andrey Rublev was crowned champion in Monte Carlo in 2023. Historically, he has thrived at this venue, winning five of six matches since last year’s edition. He leads the head-to-head against Gaël Monfils 2:1, and crucially, boasts the advantages of youth and a more assertive playing style. Rublev is comfortable on clay. Last season, he captured the ATP 1000 title in Madrid, registering victories over Carlos Alcaraz, Félix Auger-Aliassime, Tallon Griekspoor and Taylor Fritz. The Monte Carlo clay, rated at a speed of 3/10, complements his game well, enabling him to dictate in longer rallies.
Gaël Monfils
Gaël Monfils comes into this encounter on a six-match losing streak on clay. The last time he defeated a top-10 opponent on this surface was back in February 2018 — more than six years ago. Although he recently came through a three-set match against Fábián Marozsán, the second and third sets (6:2, 6:1) offered little insight into his current level, as his opponent faded dramatically. Physically, Monfils finds it difficult to match the intensity of the younger generation, and at 38, the slower conditions make it hard for him to stay competitive in extended exchanges.
Andrey Rublev vs Gaël Monfils Prediction
Andrey Rublev has looked assured in Monte Carlo, winning 83% of his matches here over the past two seasons. Gaël Monfils, by contrast, hasn't beaten a top-tier player on clay in years and enters this match on a prolonged losing run on the surface. With that in mind, backing Andrey Rublev to win with a -1.5 handicap appears to be a sound prediction.
