Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Australian Open match.
Rublev is entering the Australian Open not in his best form. In the first round, he'll face the rising star of world tennis, 18-year-old Joao Fonseca. It's crucial for Andrey to progress as far as possible, as he reached the quarter-finals last year and is defending a significant amount of ranking points. Meanwhile, the Brazilian is having a phenomenal run, having recently won the Youth Masters tournament in Jeddah and his second Challenger title in Canberra. A victory over the Russian would be a significant statement for him and an opportunity to cement his place in the world's top 100.
Andrey Rublev
The Russian is currently ranked ninth in the ATP rankings, but his performances in recent months have been far from consistent. He has lost his last five matches. In 2025, Rublev played only one match, losing to the world's No. 57, Fabian Marozsan (5:7, 6:3, 3:6). Late last year, Rublev expressed concerns over the packed schedule but continued to participate in exhibition tournaments without getting adequate rest. It's also worth noting that Rublev has lost seven of his last eight matches against players with a two-handed backhand, which happens to be a strength of his upcoming opponent.
Joao Fonseca
The 18-year-old Brazilian is on an incredible streak. In the last two months, he has won 13 consecutive matches, including the Youth Masters tournament in Jeddah and a Challenger in Canberra. During the Australian Open qualifying rounds, he didn't drop a single set to his three opponents, securing his spot in the main draw with ease. He has also won 8 of his last 10 encounters against higher-ranked players.
Andrey Rublev vs Joao Fonseca Prediction
Fonseca is showing consistent tennis and has a streak of 16 consecutive won sets. His style is reminiscent of Carlos Alcaraz, featuring an aggressive forehand, excellent physical fitness, and the ability to attack from any position on the court. If Rublev struggles to control his emotions once again, the match could turn into a real contest, where the young Brazilian will have all the chances to win. However, we'll play it safe and predict a win for Fonseca with a handicap.
