Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the EFL Cup match.
Arsenal approach their League Cup match in a less-than-ideal mood, although a draw away at Manchester City would be a gift for most. Arsenal, however, handed a gift of their own. Bolton Wanderers are not in an enviable situation.
Arsenal
Conceding a goal in injury time and letting slip a win against Manchester City, considering the statistics, was entirely a fair result. In fact, Manchester City should have won, with a massive number of chances (33 shots, 11 on target), 2.16 xG, plus playing with a numerical advantage for half the match, only yielding another goal from Erling Haaland early on and John Stones’ equaliser in the 98th minute. Goalkeeper David Raya was impressive again, Riccardo Calafiori scored excellently into the corner, and Gabriel Magalhães found the net with a header from a corner for the second game in a row. Arsenal's two goals required just five shots, three of which were on target, with an extremely economical xG of 0.67.
Bolton Wanderers
Bolton have been inconsistent. It's been six matches without even a minimal winning streak. They either win or lose, sometimes by large margins. Last weekend, they thrashed Reading 5:2 at home, a team that previously conceded an average of one goal per game. Notably, two of those five goals came from penalties. Dion Charles scored a hat-trick, bringing his tally to five goals across all competitions. Scoring five goals from 18 shots amounts to a 27.8% conversion rate, which is quite efficient. However, Balton Wanderers have also been held goalless in three out of nine games. Against one of the Premier League's top sides, they are likely to have one of their worst performances, given the significant difference in opposition quality.
Arsenal vs Bolton Wanderers Prediction
The desire for redemption in front of their fans and themselves, playing at the Emirates Stadium, and their excellent conversion rate (8 goals in the Premier League with an xG of 5.64) give me reason to predict a decisive victory for Arsenal.
