Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Monte Carlo match.
Arthur Fils has hit his stride with the arrival of spring, advancing to three consecutive quarter-finals at Masters 1000 events. His upcoming encounter with Carlos Alcaraz in Monte Carlo presents a chance to sustain that momentum and potentially reach his first-ever semi-final at this level. Carlos Alcaraz, on the other hand, will be aiming to demonstrate that his early elimination from Indian Wells and sluggish starts in Monte Carlo are only temporary setbacks.
Arthur Fils
The young Frenchman is currently enjoying the most successful spell of his career and appears comfortable on clay, having already secured two ATP titles on the surface. Arthur Fils has won three of his four matches against top-20 opposition on clay courts. In Monte Carlo, he has beaten three players ranked inside the top 40, dropping just one set — against Tallon Griekspoor — and that only after a tiebreak. He has been particularly effective behind his first serve throughout the tournament, winning an average of 78% of points on it.
Carlos Alcaraz
Since August 2024, Carlos Alcaraz has lost four of his six quarter-final appearances at Masters 1000 events. Although he is yet to drop a set in Monte Carlo, the Spaniard has struggled to find fluency in opening sets. In his previous match, he committed 25 unforced errors while producing just eight winners in the opening set. His first serve has also been less reliable, with only 65% of points won behind it during this tournament.
Arthur Fils vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
Arthur Fils is in outstanding form, handling top-tier opponents with maturity and showing confidence on clay. Carlos Alcaraz, by comparison, has been prone to early-match errors and has an inconsistent record at this stage of Masters 1000 tournaments. Backed by the home crowd, the Frenchman is unlikely to allow a one-sided contest.
