Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Indian Wells Masters match.
Daniil Medvedev has reached the Indian Wells quarterfinals for the third consecutive year, displaying dominant form despite challenging weather conditions and external criticism. Meanwhile, Arthur Fils has already surpassed expectations by making it this far, securing his best Masters result to date. However, the young Frenchman still struggles against top-10 players.
Arthur Fils
Fils has won three consecutive matches for the first time this season. Prior to Indian Wells, his best 2025 result was reaching the third round of the Australian Open. While he claimed ATP titles in Tokyo and Hamburg last year, those victories came on different surfaces. In this tournament, Fils defeated Lorenzo Musetti and Marcos Giron, both ranked outside the top 10. However, he spent over five hours across those two matches, which could take a toll on his endurance. Historically, the Frenchman has struggled against elite opponents, losing five of seven career matches against top-10 players.
Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev has won 8 of 11 hard-court matches this season and continues to dominate on return. In Indian Wells, he has already secured 12 breaks across three matches. Against Tommy Paul, the Russian limited his opponent to just 2/8 on break points while winning 72% of points on his first serve. Medvedev and Fils met once before in Vienna 2023 (indoor hard), where the Russian secured a routine 6:4, 6:2 victory.
Arthur Fils vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction
Fils has yet to face a defensive wall like Medvedev, and his aggressive approach will likely lead to errors. Medvedev consistently averages four breaks per match and will capitalise on Fils' fatigue after his marathon matches. Given that Medvedev has breezed through his three rounds in just two hours total, expect him to control the match and secure a comfortable win.
