Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the US Open match.
Arthur Rinderknech’s chances of upsetting Alejandro Davidovich Fokina are being rated at only around 25%. Perhaps that’s a touch harsh considering the Frenchman stunned Alexander Zverev at Wimbledon not long ago. He’s also already beaten one Spaniard in New York.
Arthur Rinderknech
That win came against Roberto Carballés Baena, who was much closer to him in the rankings — 87th compared to Rinderknech’s 82nd. Even so, it took the Frenchman almost four hours to get through in four sets (7:6, 7:5, 4:6, 6:2). Such a long battle is bound to have left its mark physically. When Arthur does lose, it tends to be quickly: in 2025, he’s suffered 25 defeats, and in only four of them did he manage to take a set. In fact, he is on a 13-match losing streak without winning a single set.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
By contrast, Davidovich Fokina breezed through his first-round match at the US Open 2025, dismantling Alexander Shevchenko in just 1 hour 26 minutes, dropping only four games (6:1, 6:1, 6:2). The 18th seed has been producing similar dominant performances: in 11 of his last 16 matches he has advanced without conceding a set.
Arthur Rinderknech vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Prediction
The pair have met once before, back in 2021, when Rinderknech claimed the win. With Rinderknech’s recent inability to take sets and Davidovich Fokina’s tendency to win cleanly, the outcome looks straightforward. Expect the Spaniard to advance in straight sets.
