Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the WTA Madrid match.
Sunday’s final in Madrid brings together two of the most explosive players on the WTA Tour — Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff — in a battle that could define the early pecking order of the clay season. Both have made impressive runs to this stage, though the pressure of a title match could easily expose nerves and inconsistency.
Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka has been largely dominant en route to the final, dropping just one set in five matches. Her semi-final win over Elina Svitolina (6:3, 7:5) lasted 93 minutes and featured trademark power, but also signs of fragility: only 56% first-serve percentage and four double faults. Though she saved five of seven break points, it’s no secret that her serve wobbles more frequently on clay — a surface that doesn’t fully suit her aggressive style.
Coco Gauff
For Gauff, a disappointing quarter-final exit in Stuttgart against Jasmine Paolini (4:6, 3:6) raised doubts, but she responded emphatically in Madrid. The 20-year-old hasn’t dropped a set all tournament and dismantled both Mirra Andreeva (7:5, 6:1) and Iga Swiatek (6:1, 6:1). Against the world No.1, Gauff landed 62% of her first serves and fired seven aces, showing maturity in capitalising on her opponent’s mistakes.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Prediction
Despite bookmakers slightly favouring Sabalenka, the momentum arguably lies with Gauff. That said, with both players prone to streaky patches and the potential for nerves to mount in a final, this match is unlikely to become a tight three-set battle. On clay, their aggressive styles can unravel quickly under pressure — expect a result decided in straight sets with a fairly modest number of games.
