Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the WTA Stuttgart match.
Aryna Sabalenka is set to feature in her fourth final at the Stuttgart tournament, still chasing her maiden title at this event. This year's edition could be her best chance yet: she is in exceptional form and aiming for her third title of the season. Elena Ostapenko also has strong motivation — this marks her third career final on clay and a potential return to the WTA top 20. However, her head-to-head record against Aryna Sabalenka suggests a challenging task ahead.
Aryna Sabalenka
The world number one has been in superb form this season, winning 26 of her 30 matches, including 17 of her last 20 on clay. In her three previous finals in Stuttgart, Sabalenka was only beaten by elite opponents — Ashleigh Barty and Iga Swiatek. This week, she has looked commanding, defeating Elise Mertens (6:1, 6:4) and world number six Jasmine Paolini (7:5, 6:4), without dropping a set. In her last seven matches against players ranked outside the top 20, Sabalenka has conceded no more than nine games in any single contest.
Elena Ostapenko
Ostapenko has reached her second final of the year and boasts a strong clay-court record in 2024, with five wins from six matches on the surface. However, her track record against Aryna Sabalenka is problematic — three defeats, each by at least a six-game margin. Additionally, her serve has been unreliable this week in Stuttgart, landing only 59% of first serves and committing 13 double faults across three matches.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Ostapenko Prediction
Aryna Sabalenka has been firmly in control in their previous meetings, and given her current momentum, Elena Ostapenko is unlikely to present a serious challenge. Sabalenka has reached the final with just two matches played, while Elena Ostapenko had to battle through physically demanding three-set encounters against Iga Swiatek (6:3, 3:6, 6:2) and Emma Navarro (7:5, 3:6, 6:2). While the odds favour a comfortable win for Aryna Sabalenka, we’ll take a slightly more cautious approach.
