Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the WTA 1000 Miami match.
Jasmine Paolini has made history in Miami — not only is this her first semifinal appearance of the 2025 season, but she also becomes the first Italian woman to reach this stage at the tournament. However, standing between her and the final is none other than the world No. 1.
Aryna Sabalenka
This marks Sabalenka’s fourth semifinal of the year, and she’s converted all previous three into final appearances. Her quarterfinal against ninth seed Zheng Qinwen started strongly, with Aryna cruising through the first set (6:2). The second, however, brought challenges. Down 2:4 and facing breakpoint at 30-40 on her own serve, Sabalenka clawed back with her trademark power and composure, eventually sealing the set 7:5. Experience and sheer aggression once again proved decisive.
Jasmine Paolini
Paolini eased past Magda Linette in the quarters (6:3, 6:2), facing little resistance. The sixth seed allowed just one break conversion from eight chances, displaying sharp movement and consistency. But Linette doesn’t pack the same punch as Sabalenka — a very different kind of challenge awaits. The Italian has faced Aryna five times and hasn’t won since their early meetings. Their last two showdowns — in Beijing 2023 and at the 2024 WTA Finals — both ended in straight-set wins for Sabalenka, who didn’t drop more than five games in total.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction
However, Aryna Sabalenka’s final advantage in those matches was at most five games. And Jasmine Paolini certainly won’t give up without a fight this time either. The best bet is to take the Italian with a game handicap.
