Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the WTA US Open match.
Aryna Sabalenka advanced after Markéta Vondroušová withdrew and is edging closer to repeating last year’s US Open triumph. Standing in the Belarusian’s way is Jessica Pegula, the 2024 finalist. The American will look to avenge that defeat, but Aryna looks too strong.
Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka is in outstanding form. The Belarusian reached the finals at Wimbledon and the Australian Open, and she also lifted the Brisbane International and the Miami Open. At this US Open, Aryna is in command: she has not dropped a set, has won 80% of points behind her first serve, and has served 16 aces. Sabalenka has also matched up well with Jessica Pegula, having won the last three meetings without dropping a set.
Jessica Pegula
Pegula is also cruising through the draw and she has not dropped a set. However, all of the American’s opponents have been ranked outside the top 50. On hard courts this season, Jessica has lost 9 of 36 matches, and she has won only one WTA 250 in Austin (ATX Open). In the build-up to the US Open, Pegula went out in the first or second round at three consecutive events, even though she faced Anastasija Sevastova, Leylah Fernandez and Magda Linette, all outside the top 30.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Prediction
Pegula has not yet faced a genuine test, and she is likely to fall short at the first serious examination. Sabalenka has fared well against Jessica and has covered the -3.5 games handicap in each of their last three meetings and she can do so again here.
