Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the WTA 1000 Miami Open match.
The Miami Open final will feature the top-tier clash everyone hoped for, as world No.1 Aryna Sabalenka takes on No.4 Jessica Pegula in a blockbuster semifinal. Unsurprisingly, the bookmakers have installed the Belarusian as the favourite — and with good reason.
Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka was eliminated early in Florida last year, bowing out in the third round, so even reaching the final here marks a substantial boost to her ranking tally. So far, her path to the title match has been largely untroubled. Only Zheng Qinwen asked serious questions of her — and even then, it was limited to some second-set tension (6:2, 7:5 in the round of 16).
Jessica Pegula
Jessica Pegula reached the quarter-finals of Miami in the previous edition. In 2025, she had to experience serious resistance from three out of her five opponents right away. In those matches, she needed three sets, and there was a tie-break in each of them. Alexandra Eala, who became a sensation at this tournament, could have been the last to trip up the American. The 19-year-old Filipina took a 5:2 lead in the first set, but the experience of the 31-year-old Pegula helped her turn the situation in her favor. Eala did manage to take the second set, but the ultimate victory went to the home player (7:6, 5:7, 6:3).
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Prediction
If Pegula struggles with a less powerful, more finesse-based player like Alexandra Eala, what awaits her against the explosive, pace-heavy Sabalenka? The head-to-head also leans heavily in Aryna’s favour — 6 wins to 2, with seven of their eight encounters wrapped up in straight sets. Sabalenka has won the last two meetings, and while neither was a walkover, both stretched beyond the 20-game mark.
