Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the WTA US Open match.
World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will face Leylah Fernandez, the Canadian who eliminated the Belarusian at these courts in 2021 en route to the final. The perception of Aryna is different now: she looks a clear tournament favourite and appears ready to avenge that defeat to Leylah.
Aryna Sabalenka
In New York Aryna Sabalenka has had to work: against Rebeka Masarova and Veronika Kudermetova she started unconvincingly, but then raised her level and closed out both matches. Aryna dropped at least six games to each opponent and posted 57% first-serve in. Her difficulties tend to come against top-30 opposition — she has failed to cover the -5.5 games handicap in each of her last eight such matches.
Leylah Fernandez
Leylah Fernandez can produce sustained runs of high-level tennis. This year on hard courts she has won 18 of 29 matches, and the Canadian was particularly impressive in Washington. Leylah beat Jessica Pegula, Elena Rybakina and Anna Kalinskaya to claim the title at a Masters event in the United States. In New York Fernandez has come through Rebecca Marino and Elsa Jacquemot, winning on average 65% of points behind her first serve.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Leylah Fernandez Prediction
In 2021 the Canadian beat Aryna Sabalenka in three sets, and Leylah Fernandez now looks well placed to keep this within the games handicap.
