Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the WTA Madrid match.
Aryna Sabalenka enters this quarter-final in excellent form as she targets a fourth straight semi-final appearance at the WTA 1000 event in Madrid. Her opponent, Marta Kostyuk, is enjoying the finest clay-court run of her career, but this marks her first encounter with a top-tier player in the tournament.
Aryna Sabalenka
Over the past three seasons, Aryna Sabalenka has built an impressive clay-court record, tallying 56 wins to 16 losses, with two titles in Madrid (2021, 2023) and a runner-up finish in 2024. Despite a shaky opening match this year (3:6, 6:2, 6:1), she responded with a commanding performance in her next outing (6:2, 6:4). Notably, Sabalenka has won 71% of points behind her first serve during the tournament. Her record in WTA 1000 clay quarter-finals is flawless, progressing from all five she's played.
Marta Kostyuk
Marta Kostyuk, meanwhile, has reached the quarter-finals of a major tournament for the first time in a year. However, her route in Madrid has been relatively smooth, facing opponents ranked 49, 52, and 39, dropping sets in two of those matches. Her first serve continues to be a liability, winning just 63% of points on average, and she ranks among the bottom four players for double faults this season, with 129. Against top-ranked opposition, Kostyuk has struggled significantly, losing four of her last five matches—most of them in one-sided fashion.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk Prediction
In their previous meetings, Aryna Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 2–0, both victories coming with a dominant -6.5 games handicap, one of which was on clay. Her ability to apply controlled aggression, dictate rallies, and prevail in extended exchanges gives her a clear edge. Given Marta Kostyuk’s difficulties against elite opponents, Aryna Sabalenka is widely expected to progress with little resistance and close out the match in straight sets.
