Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Australian Open match.
Aryna Sabalenka continues her dominance in Melbourne, aiming for a third consecutive title at the Australian Open. The Belarusian has won 19 matches in a row on these courts. However, her encounters in the crucial stages often tend to be tense and lengthy. Paula Badosa is experiencing the best tournament of her career, reaching a Grand Slam semi-final for the first time. The Spaniard is in outstanding form, as demonstrated by her quarter-final win against Gauff—one of the tour’s toughest opponents.
Aryna Sabalenka
As the world number one, Sabalenka has triumphed in 31 matches at hard-court Slams since 2023, suffering only one defeat. Yet, even at her peak, Aryna struggles against opponents who play aggressive tennis. Her match against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (6:2, 2:6, 6:3) highlighted her difficulties on the second serve, winning just 38% of points. Notably, Aryna has won four out of six semi-finals on hard courts, with the total over 20.5 games occurring in six instances.
Paula Badosa
The Spaniard is experiencing a career resurgence. In 2024, she recorded strong results on hard courts (26-11). This season, she has won at least one set in eight out of ten matches against top-10 opponents on hard surfaces. Her victory over the world number three, Coco Gauff (7:5, 6:4), was impressive: Badosa played confidently on her second serve (63%) and committed just 23 unforced errors, while her opponent made 41.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa Prediction
Sabalenka is unlikely to secure an easy win. Her hard-court semi-finals are usually protracted and nerve-wracking. Badosa is in excellent form and is well-positioned to contest, given her style and aggression. The match is likely to extend to three sets, as it has in half of Sabalenka's Grand Slam semi-finals.
