Adam Williams presents his prediction for the UFC Fight Night 245 fight.
Assu Almabayev
Wide overhands and kicks from Almabayev will force Matheus to keep a high guard, creating openings for the Kazakh fighter to target his opponent's body with sharp punches and front kicks. Almabayev will look to draw Nicolau in, and when the Brazilian attempts to attack with a boxing combination, Assu will likely counter with a takedown. He will also aim to catch Nicolau’s leg during a low kick, execute a takedown, and immediately secure side control. From top position, Assu will pursue a knockout, employing a barrage of ground-and-pound strikes. He will look for a choke from any position, demonstrating his versatility on the ground.
Matheus Nicolau
Nicolau might concede the centre of the octagon but will try to evade Almabayev's pressure without retreating to the fence. Nicolau's scorching straight punches will help him keep Assu at bay, gradually breaking down his defence. He will hone his flying knee and upward trajectory kicks to potentially knock out the Kazakh as he shoots for a takedown. In the second round, the Brazilian will launch his own offensive, aiming to land a precise hook between Almabayev's guard. He will focus on defending against takedowns at the fence, where he will attempt to pin his opponent and unleash slicing elbows. Matheus will seek to stand up swiftly from the ground, and if not immediately successful, he will recall his armbar or triangle choke techniques.
Betting Odds
Bookmakers favour the Kazakh due to his strength and technical prowess as a wrestler who doesn't neglect his footwork and delivers unexpected spins. The odds for an Almabayev victory stand at 1/2.
It's hard to envision how Matheus will counter Assu's wrestling, and although he might avoid submissions, he will find it extremely challenging to return to his feet. A bet on Nicolau’s victory is available at odds of 8/5.
Assu Almabayev vs Matheus Nicolau Prediction
In recent bouts, Nicolau has suffered knockouts, but it's unlikely that Assu will exploit this vulnerability. Almabayev will primarily operate on the ground, where his opponent will mount a confident defence. Assu holds an advantage in strength and wrestling, yet Nicolau is a technical grappler who poses a threat on the ground as well. We don’t believe Matheus has the power in his shots to secure a knockout, although he may lead in significant strikes in the stand-up exchanges. This fight promises plenty of clinch work against the fence and could come down to close judges’ scores, making it difficult to pick a clear favourite. The best bet for this match-up is on the total over 2.5.
