Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Champions League match.
Atlético Madrid trailing 1:2 from the first leg, this Madrid derby at the Metropolitano will be a season-defining test for Atlético, who must be at their very best to turn things around.
Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid responded quickly to Rodrygo Silva’s early goal at the Bernabéu, with Álvaro Morata equalising, but their overall attacking output was dismal. Across 90 minutes, the team managed just 0.20 xG and two shots on target, making defeat a fair result. Diego Simeone is unlikely to repeat the mistake of replacing Antoine Griezmann with Robin Le Normand too early, but his team will still prioritise cautious, defensive football. Even against Getafe, Atlético Madrid recorded just 0.97 xG with two shots on target, despite enjoying 61% possession. Inefficiency in front of goal has been a consistent issue all season.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid returned to the top of La Liga at the weekend, but Barcelona still have the edge in terms of points lost. Jude Bellingham returned to action but was pushed out wide, which contributed to a modest five shots on target in the 2:1 victory over Rayo Vallecano. With defensive absences forcing Real Madrid to be more conservative, they will likely play a controlled, risk-averse game. Their record at the Metropolitano is poor, having won just once in seven visits since September 2019.
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction
With both teams set to prioritise defensive discipline, expect a physical battle with limited clear-cut chances. Atlético Madrid will look to frustrate Real Madrid, making a low-scoring affair the most likely outcome.
