Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Europa League match.
After two and a half months, AZ Alkmaar and Galatasaray meet again in Alkmaar. Their last encounter ended in a draw (1:1), but the more star-studded Turkish side are expected to take control once again. With their depth in midfield and attack, Galatasaray have the tools to push for a victory.
AZ Alkmaar
Despite winning their last three matches in February, AZ struggled earlier, suffering defeats against Sparta Rotterdam (1:2) and Ferencváros (3:4). Defensive frailties have been a recurring issue—they allowed 2.60 xGA in those games and consistently made mistakes at the back. In the Europa League group stage, AZ Alkmaar conceded 13 goals in eight matches, the third-worst defensive record among the teams that progressed to the knockout rounds.
Galatasaray
Interestingly, Galatasaray conceded even more goals (16) in the group stage, but their attack made up for it with 19 goals scored, making them the top-scoring team in the competition. Their loss at Ajax (1:2) was largely down to poor finishing (2.71 vs 1.44 in xG). However, their star striker Victor Osimhen has been in phenomenal form, registering 5+1 since the start of January. In Sunday's win over Adana (1:0), new signing Álvaro Morata netted his first goal for the club, but the match was cut short in the first half—giving Galatasaray extra rest ahead of their Europa League clash.
AZ Alkmaar vs Galatasaray Prediction
In their previous meeting, Galatasaray dominated the second half, generating 1.27 xG vs 0.25 for AZ Alkmaar after the break. Expect the Turkish side to once again dictate the tempo and avoid defeat.
