Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Nations League match.
This is a match for third place in the group, with the aim of avoiding relegation to the lowest league. Currently, Azerbaijan have fewer chances for survival, while Estonia are in a more favourable position. Essentially, a draw would suffice for them.
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan unsurprisingly lost at home to the strong sides of Slovakia and Sweden, both with a 1:3 scoreline. However, these were motivated opponents at a level above average. For instance, Slovakia nearly knocked the eventual finalists, England, out of the recent Euros. Against competitors like Estonia, Azerbaijan usually fare better. It's worth noting that in the previous Nations League campaign, they thrashed Kazakhstan (3:0), who were 17 places higher in the world rankings than Estonia, and also confidently beat Belarus, a top-100 team (2:0).
Estonia
Estonia face significant challenges in away matches. The last time the Baltic side won on foreign soil was in a friendly against Finland (1:0) in January 2023. Their last official victory was in the previous Nations League when they were still competing in League D against San Marino (4:0). Estonia are eager to avoid returning there. In their 11-match winless streak, they have managed only two draws: against Azerbaijan (1:1) in the Euro 2024 qualifiers and in the Baltic Cup 2024 with Lithuania (1:1).
Azerbaijan vs Estonia Prediction
Estonia's 3:1 victory in the first leg was achieved largely against the odds: for two-thirds of the time, the visitors created opportunities but missed counterattacks, scoring only from a penalty. Estonia are an accessible opponent, so Azerbaijan are likely to secure a win.
