Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the UEFA Nations League match.
It's evident that Sweden hold the status of absolute favourites in their League C group. Even with the home support in Baku, Azerbaijan are unlikely to pose a significant challenge to the Scandinavians, whose main squad largely plays in Europe's top five leagues.
Azerbaijan
In four friendlies in 2024, Azerbaijan secured two wins and scored six goals. The respectable results can be attributed to the level of competition, while against Euro 2024 participants Albania, Azerbaijan's defence faltered (1:3). In that match, the Aserbaijani players operated in a 4-3-3 formation, which helped them dominate possession (60-40 possession), but the opponent scored three times from five shots on target.
Sweden
Sweden, like Azerbaijan, did not make it to the final stage of Euro 2024. In June, the Scandinavians lost to Denmark (1:2) and Serbia (0:3)—again, considering the level of the opponents, it's noteworthy that the team created a strong 1.51 xG in the second game with a shot differential of 21-7. The coaching staff may possibly start Sebastian Nanasi and Hugo Larsson—both promising midfielders, who will create chances for Dejan Kulusevski and Alexander Isak.
Azerbaijan - Sweden Prediction
Recall that in the Euro 2024 qualifiers, Sweden thrashed Azerbaijan at home (5:0), and the return leg in Baku last November was merely a formality—the Scandinavians fielded a reserve squad and lost (0:3). Now, the favourites are highly motivated—they are eager to return to the elite.
