Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Brazilian Serie A match.
Two sides with top-five ambitions meet under less-than-ideal circumstances. Both Bahia and São Paulo are coming off physically and emotionally taxing midweek matches in continental competitions, and fatigue — along with injury absences — is likely to play a defining role in this Sunday-night clash.
Bahia
After a 1:2 defeat to Internacional in the final group-stage round of the Copa Sudamericana, Bahia have now lost five of their last seven matches across all competitions. Their attacking output has dried up — three of those defeats came without scoring a single goal. With only five goals in six Sudamericana group games, they finished third and now face a more difficult playoff path starting from the 1/16 finals. However, their domestic home form remains a bright spot: five Série A matches at Arena Fonte Nova have yielded zero defeats, only three goals conceded, and one of the league’s best home defences — matched only by Vasco da Gama.
São Paulo
São Paulo have struggled for consistency in the league, managing just two wins from their opening ten fixtures. Last week’s 0:2 loss to Mirassol dropped them out of the top 12, and they now sit just three points above the relegation zone. On the plus side, they secured a much-needed Libertadores win over Talleres (2:1), which saw them through to the knockout stages. But injuries remain a major concern: Lucas Moura was out for that match, and São Paulo are missing as many as nine players, including key names like Oscar Emboaba and Luiz Gustavo. Coach Luis Zubeldía will again be forced to rotate.
Bahia vs São Paulo Prediction
Given the heavy schedule, travel fatigue, and reduced squad depth — especially for São Paulo — this game has all the markings of a low-scoring affair. Historically, these two teams have gone under 2.5 goals in four of their last six meetings, and current form points in the same direction.
