Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Champions League match.
After a thrilling match at the end of January, where Barcelona miraculously snatched a victory against Benfica (5:4), last week’s game was less open (1:0). This was mainly due to Pau Cubarsi’s early sending-off, forcing the Catalans to rely on counter-attacks. However, in their home environment, they will regain control of possession.
Barcelona
Barcelona have been in exceptional form in 2025, winning 13 of their last 16 matches and remaining unbeaten since 21 December. Their weekend fixture against Osasuna was postponed, ensuring a fully rested squad for Tuesday’s game at the Stadio Olimpico. Even when down to ten men in Lisbon, Barcelona managed to accumulate 1.19 xG, with Wojciech Szczęsny’s eight saves proving decisive. The Polish goalkeeper will need to produce another world-class performance to keep the visitors in contention.
Benfica
Benfica created plenty of chances in the first leg, registering 1.75 xG from 26 attempts, but lacked efficiency in the final third. The Portuguese side will be missing suspended left-back Álex Grimaldo, forcing Bruno Lage to shift Fredrik Aursnes into the defensive line, which could weaken their ability to contain Barcelona’s attacking threat. Their 3:0 win over Nacional at the weekend showcased their firepower, generating 4.34 xG with 12 shots on target, underlining their attacking form ahead of this must-win fixture.
Barcelona vs Benfica Prediction
Barcelona are heavy favourites to progress, but Benfica have the quality to find the net. Given the attacking nature of both teams and the recent history of high-scoring encounters, backing both teams to score is the best option.
