Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Bundesliga match.
Bayern Munich return from the international break looking to cement their lead at the top of the table — but defensive injuries could make things tricky, even against modest opposition like St. Pauli.
Bayern Munich
Bayer’s confident progression to the Champions League Round of 16 (5:0 on aggregate) highlighted their level of dominance among domestic competitors – the club is once again distancing itself from other teams. On the other hand, in matches against Bochum and Union (1:1), the team allowed 2.17 xGA and conceded four goals – managing to take only one point from those games. Bayern Munich still enjoy a comfortable six-point lead over Bayer Leverkusen, and their xG has already surpassed 70+ expected goals (73.94), but defensive errors have become a regular occurrence.
St. Pauli
The visitors have been quietly grinding out results — a 1:1 draw with Wolfsburg and a 1:0 win over Hoffenheim pulled them five points clear of the relegation play-off spot. Impressively, they generated 2.67 xG across those two matches, a high number considering their usual conservative setup. However, they’ll be without key defender Van der Heyden, who picked up an injury before the international break — a blow ahead of such a tough away day.
Bayern Munich vs St. Pauli Prediction
Bayern edged St. Pauli (1:0) in Hamburg earlier this season, courtesy of a Jamal Musiala goal. With both sides showing signs of defensive fragility or change, a more open encounter could be on the cards this time.
