Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the UEFA Nations League match.
In the first three rounds of the Nations League group stage, neither Belarus nor Luxembourg have managed to hit the total over 2.5 in their matches. The September face-off, where the home side edged out a 1:0 victory, suggested that the rematch will follow the same pattern—neither side is likely to take on an attacking initiative.
Belarus
Belarus's excellent defensive play, with no goals conceded over 270 minutes in the tournament, has allowed them to lead their group. Against skillful Northern Ireland (0:0), the team played reactively, with an xG of 0.35 compared to 1.15, 38%-62% in possession, indicating that Belarus were waiting for counter-attack opportunities. On Tuesday, they are expected to start with Valery Gromyko and Artem Kontsevoy to add more pace on the wings.
Luxembourg
In a relatively balanced group, more was definitely expected from Luxembourg, who managed just one point from nine. They have yet to score in the Nations League, and against Bulgaria on Saturday (0:0), they managed 0.78 xG from six shots over 90 minutes, with none on target. The team have plenty of star options in midfield, but it seems the manager isn't utilising them effectively.
Belarus vs Luxembourg Prediction
Last month, Belarus made smart use of substitutions, with Valery Gromyko coming off the bench to score the decisive goal (1:0). It's expected that the group leaders will again neutralise Luxembourg's strengths—this match is unlikely to turn into a goal-scoring feast.
