Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Champions League match.
Barcelona's attack has returned to effective form, suggesting they will outplay Benfica. In the final phase of the Champions League group stage, Benfica lost to Barcelona (5:4) at Estádio da Luz and now have significantly fewer players available in defence.
Benfica
Following that defeat to Barcelona, Benfica also lost to Casa Pia (1:3) before beginning an eight-match unbeaten run. They were close to elimination from the Champions League against AS Monaco (4:3 on aggregate) – in the return leg in Lisbon the Monegasques led for an extended period, registering 1.26 xG and recording six shots on target. With injured Alexander Bah and Florentino Luís unavailable, Benfica now have limited defensive resources, which Barcelona are expected to exploit.
Barcelona
Over the past month, Barcelona have scored a total of 20 goals in six matches across all competitions – achieving Total Over 1.5 in five of these games. Last week, Barcelona missed out on a victory against Atlético Madrid (4:4) in the first leg of the Copa del Rey semi-finals, but they rectified their defensive errors with a 4:0 win over Real Sociedad in La Liga. Since the Lisbon match against Benfica, Robert Lewandowski has scored eight goals in nine games, and he remains consistently dangerous inside the opposition’s penalty area.
Benfica vs Barcelona Prediction
In the seventh round of the group stage, Benfica conceded 3.63 xG with 11 shots on target from Barcelona. Even if Barcelona generate fewer opportunities, we expect they will still score two or three goals.
