Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Champions League Qualifying match.
Despite the balanced first leg in Istanbul that ended goalless (0:0), bookmakers remain firmly behind Benfica to finish the job against Fenerbahçe. Still, there’s every reason to consider the Turkish side with José Mourinho in the dugout — for the legendary coach, this Champions League campaign could represent one last chance to make his mark on the big stage.
Benfica
Benfica’s favourite tag is understandable: in a month of official matches they’ve yet to lose, with five wins in six. That said, whenever the Portuguese have come up against higher-calibre opposition — Sporting in the Portuguese Super Cup (1:0) and Fenerbahçe in the first leg — their attacking play hasn’t clicked. Last week Benfica were second best creatively (0.32-0.40 in xG), and with Florentino Luís suspended their midfield anchor will be weakened. His replacement, Leandro Barreiro, is far more attack-minded.
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, will feel they should have taken more from that opening tie after playing the final 20 minutes with a man advantage. Youssef En-Nesyri even looked to have nicked it, only for his strike to be chalked off for offside. At least Saturday’s domestic outing showed signs of promise: a 3:1 victory over Kocaelispor where newcomers Jhon Durán and Archie Brown combined for the decisive goal, and the team produced 1.67 xG.
Benfica vs Fenerbahçe Prediction
Benfica’s tactical versatility against José Mourinho’s nous and Fenerbahçe’s quality makes this a fascinating contest. With the tie finely balanced, the value lies in siding with the visitors to keep it close and potentially force extra-time.
