Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Nations League match.
Saturday's defeat for Bosnia and Herzegovina against Germany (0:7) was the largest suffered by the generation of Edin Džeko and Miralem Pjanić. As the group underdogs, they are unlikely to challenge the Netherlands in the final round, where the standings are no longer at stake, and the moral advantage belongs to the visitors.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
At the Freiburg stadium, Bosnia and Herzegovina conceded five goals in the first hour of play. The final xGA (4.03) and the difference in shots (7-23) indicated a complete defensive collapse for Bosnia's team. Most likely, Edin Džeko will start in the final Nations League match, as Stuttgart's striker Ermedin Demirović had a disastrous outing against the compact German defence. Bosnia's defence will once again have to rely on the same players, with no alternatives available on the bench.
Netherlands
In the fifth round, the Netherlands, like Germany, overwhelmed another underdog, defeating Hungary at home (4:0). The team created 2.92 xG and took 11 shots on target. The coaching staff smoothly integrated possession play (72-28 in % ball control), which could increase further on Tuesday. The key players for the Dutch have not lost motivation for the final round: Cody Gakpo, Tijjani Reijnders (both 2+1), and Denzel Dumfries (3+1) are eager to improve their standings in the scoring charts.
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Netherlands Prediction
In September, Bosnia and Herzegovina failed to contain the Netherlands' attack (2:5). Even at home, the underdogs will struggle defensively—we are backing the favourites' individual total.
