Adam Williams presents his prediction for the UFC on ESPN 64 fight.
Brandon Moreno
Brandon Moreno will throw a lot of long-range strikes and frequently move back out to the outside. He’ll also go to work on Steve’s body with powerful hooks and mix in mid kicks. To defend against Erceg’s jabs, Moreno will look to duck under and respond with overhands. The Mexican will land plenty of low kicks combined with heavy hooks to the head, which will force Steve back towards the cage. From there, Brandon may snatch the lead leg for a takedown or move into the clinch and unleash vicious knees. On the ground, Moreno will try to land as many strikes as possible, even if they’re not the hardest shots. He’ll aim to force Steve into panicked movement, creating an opening to take the back and lock in a rear-naked choke.
Steve Erceg
Steve Erceg will concede the centre of the Octagon, hoping to lure Brandon into throwing wide punches. Erceg will then look to make him miss and land accurate one-twos to the chin or a powerful uppercut. He’ll block low kicks and respond with body kicks and crosses to the head. When defending another wave of Moreno’s offence, Steve will raise a high guard and shoot for a double-leg takedown. The bout will then head to the cage wall, where Erceg will look to complete the takedown. On the mat, Steve will try to maintain control and look for opportunities to threaten submissions.
Betting Odds
Bookmakers favour Brandon, who showed in his fight against Albazi that he’s still in excellent form. The odds on a Moreno win are 2/5. Steve is a less experienced fighter, and it’s unlikely he’ll be able to read a former champion as sharp as Brandon. A bet on an Erceg win is available at 19/10.
Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg Prediction
Steve tends to fight in a fairly predictable way, and recent opponents have been able to capitalise on that. To beat Moreno, he’d need to bring a more complete striking game and improved wrestling—something that’s unlikely to happen after just one training camp. Brandon will likely get the better of the striking exchanges at all ranges and find success with his kicks. His defensive skills should prevent Steve from landing cleanly or consistently. The Mexican is expected to be the first to complete a takedown and maintain control on the ground. Moreno looks well-positioned to win either by decision or a late finish in the championship rounds.
